Senator Krysten Sinema leaves the Democratic Party and registers as an independent.

 

Senator Krysten Sinema. Politico.

Arizona Senator Krysten Sinema has left the Democratic Party offering a major shakeup to the Democrats plans in the Senate. Politico. Sinema downplayed the news saying she won't caucus with the Republicans and will still vote the same way she did in the past. Sinema said that she didn't really fit into the Republican/Democrat mindset and was independent on many issues. Sinema, along with blue dog Democrat Joe Manchin, now have considerable power over Senate legislation as both would have to be brought on board to pass anything that the Democrats want. It is unclear if Sinema will run again in 2024 but if she does it could be chaotic for all parties involved since it is very possible that she could face challengers from both the Democrats and Republicans. Democrats appear to be furious with her but it is important to note that Sinema has already faced massive criticism from her former party after not rubber stamping many of their priorities. 

My Comment:

I think a lot of people are overplaying the importance of this as I don't think that much will actually change. Sinema and Machin were always going to be the deciding votes in the Senate and that doesn't change with Sinema leaving the party. The only thing that has changed compared to before the midterms is that now the Senate Democrats will only have to convince one of them to go along with legislation instead of both. 

Also keep in mind the Republicans did manage to capture the house, meaning that outside of judicial appointments this will not have much of an affect at all. Pretty much all Democratic bills are DOA at the House once the new congress is sworn in. Judicial appointments are fairly important though so it will be interesting to see how much of a curveball Sinema and Machin will be there. 

I do expect that the Democrats rank and file won't care about this anyways and will feel betrayed by this. The one thing that Democrats have over the Republicans is the fact that they put party loyalty over everything else and they have never had much use for Democrats that don't go along with their plans. It's why Bernie Sanders got ganged up on in the 2016 and 2020 primaries and it's why Joe Manchin is called a Democrat in name only. 

Sinema herself got a huge amount of vitriol for killing a few bills that the Democrats cared about. Indeed, they were already planning a primary challenge for her in 2024 and this probably confirms it. My guess these attacks paid a major role in her leaving the Democratic Party and it's no surprise to me. 

This does mean that the Republicans have a very good chance of picking up her seat in Arizona, despite the fact that the state no longer has fair elections. All the voter suppression in the world won't matter if Sinema faces a challenge from both the right and the left. The Republicans will probably stay united behind their candidate while the Democrats will likely split the vote. That's a pretty good scenario for Republicans but I think it's very possible that Sinema does not run in 2024 since I think she knows that she won't win. 

Indeed, I think this is a case of her burning her bridges. If she thought she wasn't going to be primaried out in in 2024 I don't think she would be doing this, despite the horrible way she has been treated by the Democrats. I think this is more of a middle finger to the Democrats than anything else. 

With all that being said, I do think that this will probably not change things in the Senate. It's mostly status quo ante there with the only change is that the Democrats have 50 votes instead of 51 (though technically it's 49 because Bernie Sanders is independent as well). If she or Joe Manchin switch parties then we would have something interesting but as it stands now not much should change.