Modelers have predicted that the Delta variant of Coronavirus has peaked and will not surge over the winter. NPR. The new models were commissioned by the CDC and found that in multiple models the virus will have mostly flatlined by March. The modelers developed different scenarios. The most likely scenario is if children get vaccinated and no new variant comes out. If that happens the numbers in March would be about 9000 cases a day down from 140,000 cases a day. This would match what the numbers were when the pandemic took off in March of 2020. However, if a new variant that was more contagious than Delta, there could still be around 50,000 cases a day in March.
My Comment:
I think these models are very optimistic. It doesn't match what has happened in the past or what happens with every other respiratory virus in the world. It always dials back in the summer and explodes in the fall and winter. That is the more likely than what this model says.
The other thing is that the model appears to depend on people getting vaccinated. Over 71 million eligible people are not vaccinated as of this writing and those numbers don't include the children that the model would require for it to be accurate. In short, I doubt many parents will vaccinate their kids given the extremely low chances of children getting severely ill or dying from the Coronavirus.
And it also assumed that the vaccine actually provides serious immunity during winter. The vaccine seems to have some use as few people who have the vaccine die from the virus (some do die from the vaccine itself though). The problem is that we don't have good data on what it does during winter. My guess is that it would probably still work but we can't assume that it would.
The other problem is the fact that new variants could arise. The real problem with the vaccination is the fact that it isn't an immunizing vaccine. People can still get the virus with the vaccine and I fear that will push the evolution of the virus to a version that is more resistant to the vaccine.
This is why I think that the mass vaccination campaign was a mistake. Though I do agree that people who are especially vulnerable should get it, giving it to everyone could push the virus to resist the various vaccines. It makes little sense to vaccinate people who are low risk and can get natural immunity with little risk.
With that being said there is an argument that the cases will collapse sooner rather than later. Historically these kinds of outbreaks tend to last two years and by March we will be hitting the two year mark. I think history is a better guide than any of these models.
And I think that people underestimate natural immunity. Though you can get Covid multiple times you do build immunity to the virus and the vast majority of people won't get as sick or sick at all after a 2nd exposure. At some point most people will become immune.
And it's not like the vaccines provide zero protection. They have brought the deaths down (along with the fact that Delta is less deadly) and I think they do provide some level of protection. It's very possible that the combination of vaccination and natural immunity will drop the caseload to acceptable levels.
There is one thing that I don't think will happen though and that is the extinction of the SARS CoV-2 virus. We have been able to eliminate one virus from humans and that was smallpox, which was a very different virus than coronaviruses. Smallpox had no natural reservoirs and did not spread though the lungs like the Coronavirus does. Even if we vaccinated everyone and everyone had natural immunity the virus would still be present in wild and domestic animals.
I think that the Coronavirus will be with us forever, though it won't be the same virus that has killed so many. Instead I think it will be like the Russian flu virus (HCoV-0C43). That virus killed 1 million people in 1889 but is still around. You probably know it as the "common cold" now. That will be the likely fate of the Coronavirus...
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