Coronavirus cases and deaths are declining in the United States.

 

Syringes loaded with the Moderna vaccine. NBC News/AFP.

The average number of Coronavirus cases and deaths are declining in the United States. NBC News. New daily cases fell below 100,000 for the first time this year. In the past 14 days the virus has declined in all 50 states and US territories. 10 states and Puerto Rico saw cases decline between 10 and 25 percent and 40 states plus DC and other US territories fell by more than 25 percent. California, which had a massive outbreak, saw a 48 percent drop. Despite the encouraging news officials are worried that new strains will cause a 4th wave of infections. 

My Comment:

This reduction in Coronavirus cases is not just a US phenomenon, cases are down globally. The United States is one of the leaders but they are far from alone. Most counties are seeing a major drop in cases. The question is why.

The most obvious is the fact that the vaccine is being rolled out at various rates of success. Some countries, like Israel are doing a very good job which would explain why they are having less cases. Other countries have not been anywhere near as effective, such as Canada. In the United States it's on a state by state basis but even in states where the rollout has been terrible has seen a decline in cases. 

I don't think it is the weather though either. Supposedly the weather was supposed to have a major effect with cases being much worse in winter than in Summer but I doubt that is the case. We had the 2nd wave in Summer and it seems too early for it to be the effect of Spring. Indeed, most of the United States is in a massive cold snap right now so it's not like the effects of the weather would have kicked in yet. 

I think that the most obvious solution is that there aren't that many people left who have been exposed to the virus. There are 27 million total cases in the United States and that number is probably massively low. Given that a lot of people catch the virus and either have no symptoms or minor symptoms and never get tested it means that it's probably double or even triple that number of cases. That, plus the fact that people are getting vaccinated means that there are less people that can be infected. It does seem that people can be infected again but those people usually have mild cases.

Unlike the experts I am not too concerned with the threat of new strains. The vaccines seem effective in fighting those viruses or at least making sure they don't spread as well or end with severe cases. And usually when a virus mutates to spread more easily it correlates with a lower case fatality rate.  Eventually these new strains will die out as well. 

I also think that the lockdowns and other restrictions don't really matter that much. States with strict lockdowns like California and New York had bad breakouts while states that didn't lockdown as hard, like South Dakota, didn't. Indeed, I don't know if these restrictions do much of anything at all. 

I do hope that this trend continues and that the virus will be a bad memory by the end of the year. I think fears of a 4th wave are overblown and that the virus will continue to decline despite the fear of new strains. I know that I am ready to go back to a normal life and ditch the facemasks.