Venezuela's Juan Guaido returns to Caracas despite risk of arrest.

Juan Guaido. BBC/Reuters. 

Venezuela's opposition leader and internationally recognized interim president Jaun Guaido has returned to Caracas despite the risk of being arrested. BBC. Guaido has faced arrest due to a Supreme Court ordered travel ban. Guaido has called on Nicholas Maduro to step down. Guaido has also organized large protesters against the Maduro regime. Guaido has large amounts of support from civilians but Maduro still controls the military. However, if Guaido were to be arrested it would cause major national and international outrage. 

My Comment:

Looks like Venezuela is still a mess. Any country that has two presidents running around at once ha some serious problems. Of course that was true before people recognized Guaido as a president. Venezuela is a basket case and it's economy is in shambles after years of socialist rule. It was going to fall apart no matter what. 

Maduro has limited options. The easiest thing to do would be to step down. If he did so his safety could be guaranteed. He could either stay in Venezuela or flee outside of the country. Doing so is probably the only way he manages to stay alive long term.

Maduro probably isn't going to step down. Once someone has the kind of power he has it's very hard to give it up. Doing so would be a huge embarrassment for him and his allies would not like it. It would also probably cost him quite a bit of money as well. 

But Maduro can't really move against Guaido either. If he does he is going to face a firestorm of criticism. Not only would he risk a major revolt that he might not be able to put down, he would likely face international sanctions and perhaps even military action. 

If he doesn't though? He might face the same revolt and international sanctions. Maduro is in a lose lose situation. If he does nothing he risks being overthrown and if he doesn't he faces an even greater chance of being overthrown. His only real option is to leave power but I can't see that happening. 

I do worry that Maduro will end up doing something desperate. And not just making a move against Guaido. I have been saying for awhile that it's possible that Venezuela could invade Guyana as a way out of their economic crisis. Doing so would be an incredibly stupid move as it would involve a military response from local, regional and global powers but that might happen anyways. Maduro has nothing to lose so he might choose war...