Joe Biden. The Hill/Getty.
Joe Biden has told his supporters that he is planning to run for president in 2020. The Hill. Biden was worried that he would not be able to raise as much money as Robert Francis O'Rourke or Bernie Sanders, who $6.1 million and $5.9 million respectively on their first day. Biden said that he needed to raise more than the other candidates so he would be taken seriously as a candidate. Biden is almost certain to enter the race but will not form an exploratory committee until after the Easter holiday. If Biden will run it will be his third attempt at a Presidential run. Biden would also represent the establishment faction of the Democratic Party.
My Comment:
I don't think there is a doubt in anyone's mind that Biden is going to run. It's been rumored since the 2016 election, so this is no surprise at all. What is surprising is how coy he is being about it. Everyone knows he is going to do so and he has essentially admitted it a couple of times now. But he still hasn't announced that he is running. It makes me think that he isn't that confident that he can win.
Biden seems to be the candidate most likely to have the support of the Democratic Party. He's pretty good at toeing the party line and isn't too far to the left on social or economic issues. I could see the party playing the same games that they did with Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primary season.
Why would they do that? Biden is closer to the center and isn't as likely to scare away blue collar whites as many of the other candidates. He's also got relatively good name recognition as a former Vice President and isn't seen as corrupt. They also think that he can play the straight man to President Trump and could be seen as more reasonable.
Of course Biden has a long way to go to win in the primaries. His main problem is that he only represents one block of the three roughly three block coalition that makes up the Democratic Party. Biden is part of the establishment, which is a large block but one that is currently losing power to the other block. The economic leftists, like Bernie Sanders is another block and then there are what I call the "woke" leftists. Those are the ones who are obsessed with identity politics and are represented by people like Kamala Harris and Corey Booker.
Biden's problem is that he doesn't appeal to the other groups. The economic leftists will likely be united around Bernie Sanders and will think that Biden won't go anywhere near far enough on economic issues. The woke group are racist and will hate Biden for the fact that he is straight, white and male. Neither group will accept Biden as their first choice and it's only hatred of Donald Trump that might motivate them to vote for him in the general election.
Assuming that Biden somehow survives the primary season intact, he also has some major character issues. There are dozens of video clips of Biden making women and girls very uncomfortable, to the point where he's groping them. Even Hillary Clinton had to share an extremely uncomfortable and long hug with Biden and it was clear she wasn't happy about it. But that isn't what is going to be viral it is going to be the dozens of times where Biden touched little girls and young women.
How seriously this scandal is going to be taken is yet to be seen. And politicians can certainly survive sex scandals. But remember, this is the #metoo era where people are supposed to take sexual assault seriously. Democrats have sometimes held to their beliefs on the issues and other times have acted like complete hypocrites so it could go either way. I don't trust the media to call Biden out on this issue though.
And of course the fact of the matter is that President Trump is going to be extremely hard to beat. Though Biden probably has a better chance than most he still has to face the fact that incumbents are always hard to beat. When that incumbent has very high approval ratings in his party and is presiding over a strong economy it gets even worse. President Trump is also a masterful debater and would be a strong match against Biden, who is a total jackass at debates. Plus there is the looming specter of Howard Schultz who might run as an independent and would likely split the Democratic Party...
All that being said, it's important to not underestimate Biden. He's managed to survive in Washington for decades and has a lot of political experience. He's not a lock to be the candidate but he has a decent chance of winning. Right now he's the odds on favorite to be the 2020 candidate for the Democratic Party, even if his chances of winning it all are pretty remote.
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