India's anti-satellite test may have caused a debris field.

Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan. Reuters.

The United States is concerned about an anti-satellite missile test that India conducted as it may have caused a major debris field. Reuters. Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan warned other countries to avoid anti-satellite missile tests. He said that space belongs to all of us and we should not make a mess of it. Anti-satellite tests cause major debris fields which can destroy other satellites and even potentially spacecraft. NASA officials also said that if we "wreck space we won't get it back". India downplayed the concerns by saying that the test took place in low orbit and that most of the debris should return to Earth's atmosphere and burn up there. India is the 4th country to obtain anti-satellite weapons after the United States, Russia, and China. 

My Comment:

Space warfare is probably one of the major long term threats to the survival of the human species. Indeed, it might be the so called "great filter" that explains the Fermi Paradox. The reason why we haven't seen any evidence of other species is because they are all trapped on their planets due to blown up satellites and other orbital debris. 

A major war in space could lead to a cascade effect where one military satellite being destroyed could cause a debris field that could damage and destroy our other satellites and space stations. This could essentially destroy entire industries that are reliant on satellites and it's not clear if they could ever recover. 

And if it was really bad we couldn't even enter space anymore. Any ship or rocket that we send up their could be perforated by thousands of high speed fragments that would likely destroy them. And that means we could no longer explore the solar system or develop any technology that needs to operate in space. 

In time the debris field may fade naturally or humans could develop a defense against it. Some kind of energy shielding might be a solution but it could take generations to develop that and it might not even be possible. It could mean that humanity could forever be trapped on Earth until some kind of natural or man made disaster kills us. 

This is, of course, the worst case scenario. But even a temporary disruption to our satellite system could be very dangerous for the rest of the world. So many things are dependent on our satellites and it would greatly damage our military capabilities with our dependence on GPS. And any civilian satellite damaged in an incident would cost millions of dollars to replace. It's a bad situation even if we only have a minor incident.

I think both NASA and our acting Secretary of Defense are correct. Testing anti-satellite missiles is dangerous and there really isn't any reason to do so. The potential consequences are much higher than anything that the Indians could gain from having anti-satellite weapons.  

As for the Indians, they are treating this as a major victory for them. They are right in the fact that they have joined a very exclusive club with anti-satellite weapons. In any serious conflict with Pakistan, they would have a major advantage in that they could shoot down their satellites while theoretically keeping their own. That's a game changer and will likely cause Pakistan to develop their own missiles.