Thursday, October 4, 2018

Last pocket of ISIS in Syria surrounded by US allies.

US backed Syrian rebels prepare for battle. Military Times/AFP/Getty. 

ISIS's last pocket of resistance in Syria has been surrounded by US backed Syrian rebels. Military Times. The final mission, called Operation Roundup, is in its third week and is targeting ISIS positions in Dier Ez Zor province, near the Iraqi border. Two more towns have been liberated in recent days and ISIS has had 700 fighters surrender to rebel forces. There are an estimated 1000 to 200 ISIS fighters left in the Euphrates River valley. 

My Comment:
I'm not sure if the DOD is right here. ISIS still has possessions in Syria both outside and inside of Dier Ez Zor province. They still have a presence in the eastern deserts outside of the Euphrates valley and they have a small holdout camp in the southwestern desert. Those possessions are however surrounded by Syrian regime forces and are likely doomed as well. They still exist though and are likely not a priority right now. 

Still, in areas where US backed forces are present in, the last holdouts are in Dier Ez Zor province. They are likely doomed. ISIS basically has no chance of taking back much of the territory they lost and are now outnumbered and outgunned by both the local rebels and US air power. It's not a question of if ISIS will be defeated in Syria but a question of when. 

The 1000 to 2000 ISIS fighter left in the Euphrates valley can only do so much. They must be running out of weapons and other supplies and are cut off from any reinforcement and resupply. Retreat isn't much of an option as well as there is nowhere left to go and even if there was, there is no way to get there. 

I don't see ISIS dying in a grand epic battle either. I think it's going to be a battle of attrition with airstrikes and small shootouts degrading ISIS's last fighters. The few that want to live will surrender, further reducing ISIS's numbers. In the end, they will likely be the only survivors as the vast majority will be killed in combat with only a few slipping away to get underground. 

ISIS's defeat militarily will not be the end of the terror group. My guess is that the same thing that happened in Iraq and Libya will happen in Syria. ISIS will change from a mini-state into a underground terror group. They will conduct terror attacks and kill large numbers of people but they won't take and hold territory again.  

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