Iranian protests over water turn violent as crowds are fired upon.

The Iranian flag. Getty/AP/MSNBC.

Protests in Iran devolved into gunplay as Iranian forces opened up on the crowds in Khorramshahr. AP. The protests have been over economic conditions as well as a major water problem. The southern part of Iran has suffered a major drought and is without clean water. The protests started peaceful but soon devolved into stone throwing and attacks on security personnel. Gunfire occurred but it is unclear which side fired first and if the protesters fired at all. Armed civilians were seen on site but it is unclear if they were fighting. Iran is in an economic crisis due to President Trump backing out of the nuclear deal and reinstating sanctions. The country has been covered with protests for the past week. Casualties during the incident are unclear with Iran claiming only one person was wounded while other sources say at least four were killed. 

تیراندازی در خرمشهر
شاهدان عینی از وقوع تیراندازی در خرمشهر، چهارراه مطهری خبر داده‌اند
خرمشهر در روزهای اخیر شاهد برگزاری تجمعات اعتراضی بوده. این ویدیوها را مخاطبان از ناآرامی‌های امشب فرستاده‌اند pic.twitter.com/g8L4fwnsK9

— BBC NEWS فارسی (@bbcpersian) June 30, 2018

My Comment:
I've always said the worst thing you can do is fire upon protesters. It is a great way to start a civil war. It doesn't matter how horrible those protesters are acting, if you fire on them, you have already lost. It doesn't always end in open warfare but it often does. Doing so is almost always a bad idea as it shifts the sympathy towards the protesters, no matter how justified firing on them is. I won't speculate too much on the behavior of these protesters as this could either be an unprovoked massacre, a mutual combat or even self defense, but in any case Iran could be endangering themselves by opening fire.

We have seen that before in Ukraine where the massive protests against the government lead to violence, a revolution, a new government and finally a civil war that still lingers on today. Firing on civilians is also how the Syrian Civil War kicked off. And it has always been my personal belief that the reason why President Barack Obama backed down during the Bundy Ranch standoff is because he knew if he used force it could lead to a second American civil war.

So are we seeing the beginnings of another Iranian revolution or civil war? Perhaps. Right now it is hard to tell. Iran has seen widespread civil unrest before and has always managed to put it down quickly. Indeed, it seems I am always hearing about some kind of protest or riot in Iran but the Iranian regime still stands.

Is anything different now? I think President Trump is the x-factor. Barack Obama's Iran nuclear deal bought the regime quite a bit of time and money that they wouldn't otherwise have. With Trump backing out of the deal, he dealt a body blow to the Iranian economy. Their currency, the rial, is in rapid inflation and economic chaos has followed.

Indeed, one of the things I have seen is that unlike previous protests this one is made up of older people, instead of idealistic young kids. Young people are more willing to risk consequences because they are young and stupid. But when you get older men protesting as well that means they don't care anymore because they have to do something because their families are the ones being threatened by this economic chaos.

This could spell doom for the Iranian regime, especially now that they are shooting at people. Iran's internet is tightly controlled but the videos above are being shared widely. With the economy in chaos and the people on the edge of revolting Tehran has to do something to stay in power.

It might be time for Iran to come groveling back to the bargaining table. The North Korea situation shows that Trump is willing to deal with these regimes, but only if they give a deal back. A better deal for America then the one Obama gave Iran might be enough to ease sanctions and allow Iran's economy to recover.

Of course, part of me hopes that the Iranian government doesn't do that and instead gets overthrown. Seeing the Iranian government brought to justice for their many crimes would be a good thing. But in the end it probably wouldn't be worth it. We aren't likely to see a Tunisia style transfer of power and it is much more likely that a civil war/revolution will end up looking like the one in Syria that still rages and spawned a massive refugee crisis. Hopefully a peaceful solution will be found.

Finally, I do want to point out that droughts are a major cause of political unrest and warfare. When people don't have clean water to drink or to grow their crops it causes untold suffering and chaos. A very good predictor of civil unrest of conflict is to follow the weather reports on droughts as more than one regime has been taken down by nature...