Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis testifies before congress. Reuters.
The United States is not pursuing regime change or collapse in Iran according to Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. Reuters. Mattis' statement came after days of back and forth between President Donald Trump and Iranian officials on social media. A report from Australia said that the United States was considering regime change but Mattis dismissed that report as "fiction". Secretary Mattis said that the United States is trying to reign in Iran's nuclear program and counteract Iran's proxy wars in Syria and Yemen but had no plans to overthrow the regime.
My Comment:
Despite the media hysteria on the issue I had no doubt that this was going to be the outcome of the saber rattling between Iran and the United States. Remember, during the President's first year, Trump was doing the exact same thing with North Korea. Fast forward to today and they are returning fallen soldiers from the Korean War and making some progress with giving up their nukes.
I doubt that President Trump wants war with Iran, though there is certainly a case to be made for doing so. They are pursuing weapons of mass destruction after all, but that's not the worst of it. They are also launching major proxy wars in both Syria and Yemen which has greatly destabilized the region. They are also using Yemen as a playground to test new weapons, including very dangerous ballistic missiles and anti-air weapons. Plus they support terror groups like Hezbollah which are capable of hitting the United States. And I have to mention they threaten Israel which is a major US ally in the region.
All that being said, I think it's very clear that Trump wants a diplomatic solution. His entire life is about making deals and he has already pulled one off with North Korea. He may threaten war but he has shown signs of desperately wanting to avoid it, like he did with his limited strikes in Syria. I think he thinks he can get a better deal with Iran than the Obama deal he just pulled off from and using saber rattling as a way to get what he wants.
After all, Iran is in huge economic trouble right now. Sanctions are starting to bite and they are dealing with quite a bit of economic inflation. It's not Venezuela level bad right now, but if things continue it could end up that way. They are having riots and disorder because they can't even afford to give their people clean water in the south, and they are at risk of falling apart if sanctions aren't lifted.
Trump is hoping that the combination of the stick of sanctions can be combined with the carrot of economic opportunity can convince Iran to come to the table. Doing so would be the best for the Iranian regime which is economically crippled and is starting to bleed themselves dry in Syria and Yemen. If they are rational they will take the deal.
But is Iran rational? I am not so sure. They are religious fanatics and have religious reasons to not go along with Trump. I think they are also very angry that Trump pulled out of their sweetheart deal with Obama that didn't really hurt them or stop them from what they wanted to do. There is a chance they will call Trump's bluff. But I don't think it is a major one. In the end I see this situation being resolved the same way the North Korea one was.
I do have to mention that I knew that the Australian report was likely fake news. For one thing it was relying on anonymous sources. And those sources were not even from the American government, but the Australian one! My guess is some minor analyst with some Australian agency with a journalist buddy sold his pet theory to them and then the news published it like it was a fact. Once again, it's garbage and has been proven to be wrong, just like so many other news stories.
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