Syrian rebels surrender to the government in a major victory for the Assad regime.

Syrian vehicles near the Syria/Jordan border. Reuters. 

Rebels in the southern part of Syria have laid down their arms to the government in a Russian brokered peace deal. Reuters. The rebels have surrendered Deraa Province after a major offensive was launched backed by Russian airstrikes. Russia guaranteed safe passage for civilians in exchanged for the rebels giving up their heavy and medium weaponry. Syria has taken back the critical Nassib crossing is a coup for Syria as it will open trade routes with Jordan and help the countries economy. With Deraa province now in Syrian control, the government controls most of the country with only the north and parts of the east still under rebel and Kurdish control. 

My Comment:

Another major victory for Syria and one that will have major implications for the war. With Deraa province now in Syrian hands the rebels have almost no territory left. By my reckoning they only have a small enclave in the tri-border area with Israel and Lebanon, Idlib province in the north and a patch of desert in the east with the border of Iraq. They have been kicked out of everywhere else. 

Of course the rebels aren't the only group left in Syria fighting. ISIS still has a few placed under their control, mostly in the east and in the tri-border region between Israel and Lebanon with the rebels in between them and the government. The Turks have part of the northern area of Syria and the Kurds still control the northern 1/4 of the country. 

I don't think any of those areas will be the first target for Syria. They will likely attack the tri-border region next. Indeed, it seems as if they already are, with new offensive being reported by the Israeli border. With that region cleared out Syria would no longer have to worry about a rear attack and could focus on clearing out ISIS, Idlib province and taking back the lands from the Kurds. 

I don't know how easy taking back the rest of the country will be for Syria though. Though the rebels have been left out to dry by almost everyone, the other factions will not be. The Turks seem to be in it for the long haul and are probably going to keep their enclave that they have carved out for quite some time. Their main priority is keeping control of the Kurds so some kind of deal might take place.

Speaking of the Kurds, I think their fate is the largest question right now. Right now they have a de-facto statelet in the north of the country that has the backing of the United States. Syria wants that territory back and the Turks want the Kurds stopped from independence. As long as the Kurds have our backing the Syrians can't do much but once ISIS is defeated in the east who knows what will happen? 

There is some question if this peace deal will last. The terms of the deal seem fair to me with most rebels fleeing to the north and leaving their weapons behind. They even got the Russians to take over peacekeeping duties in the region and convinced the Syrians to pull out some forces. Still, there is a chance that this whole thing could fall apart and fighting in Deraa province could erupt again... 

Still, no matter what happens, it is clear that the Syrian Civil War is in the endgame. Unless something unprecedented happens, Bashar al-Assad is going to remain in power in Syria. He's essentially won the war and the rebels have no more realistic chance of beating him, especially with Russia and Iran backing him up. My sincere hope is that the war ends soon and the massive number of refugees can go home.