Major 4th of July terror plot in Cleveland broken up.

Demetrius Nathaniel Pitts. USA Today/AP.

A major 4th of July terror plot in Cleveland has been broken up by the FBI. USA Today. Demetrius Nathaniel Pitts, also known as Abdur Raheem Rafeeq, was charged with material support of a terrorist organization. Pitts has sworn allegiance to al-Qaeda and talked about targeting the 4th of July parade in Cleveland. It is unclear how close he was to actually committing the crime but it is known that the 4th of July bombing was not his only plan. He also planned another attack in Philadelphia on labor day and was considering sending toys filled with explosives to the children of military men. 

My Comment:

It is very unclear how far along this threat was. It could have been anything from big talk to an imminent attack. Either way it's pretty clear that Pitts was a dangerous person and it is good that he is off of the streets. 

If Pitts had been able to get explosives I think his attack probably would have worked. The Boston Marathon bombing shows that attacking a large gathering of people with a bomb can kill and injure hundreds of people. Doing so at a 4th of July celebration in a major American city could have been a disaster and the follow up attack in Philadelphia would be just as bad, assuming he hadn't been caught by then.   

His other plot was even more disgusting. Sending toys filled with explosives to the children of military families is about as horrible of an action I can think of. Would it have worked? Maybe. I am guessing most people wouldn't open a strange package but since the recipients were children it's very possible that they would do so. It is very possible that several people would have died and the level of reaction from the attacks would be extreme due to the fact that children were being targeted. 

Of course none of this would happen if Pitts didn't have explosives and that looks where his plan fell apart. My guess is the FBI saw his posting on social media and sent in an undercover agent to offer him help. Once he started to talk about his plans he got arrested. Explosives aren't easy for people to get in America. It was a huge flaw in his plan, along with the fact the talked about what he was planning. 

I think this is another case of complexity addiction for terrorists. Pitt's plan was too big for him to handle. If he had did something a lot simpler than a bombing, like a car ramming attack or a mass shooting he probably would have succeeded. His criminal convictions would have prevented him from legally buying a gun, but anyone can buy a car or a knife and kill a large number of people. 

It might be significant that Pitts swore allegiance to al-Qaeda instead of ISIS. It's fairly rare for anyone to do that ever since ISIS burst onto the scene. They have been very successful in replacing al-Qaeda in every way, but now that the terror state has been defeated in Iraq, Libya and most of Syria maybe they aren't top dog anymore. It's also possible that Pitts was in contact, or thought he was in contact with members of al-Qaeda. 

I've always been worried about a major terror attack on the 4th of July. It always struck me as a perfect place to strike. People are distracted, they expect loud noises and they are all crowded together. It's not a coincidence that the 2016 Nice attack happened on the French equivalent of the 4th, Bastille Day. As always, I'd advise diligence this 4th due to the threat of terror attacks, and not just from Islamists.