ISIS takes next step in developing effective chemical weapons. New York Times.

An 120mm mortar shell modified to carry chlorine. New York Times/Conflict Armament Research/Sahan Research.

ISIS has stepped up their efforts to develop chemical weapons and have deployed mortar rounds modified to carry chlorine. New York Times. In the past few weeks there have been three reports of chemical attacks by ISIS on Kurds in Iraq and Syria. ISIS has dabbled in chlorine attacks for quite sometime, but in the past they used suicide bombings and IED's. The ability to fire mortars is a large step up in their abilities. Near Mosul, ISIS launched one of their home made shells at Kurdish positions. The shell failed to explode allowing it to be recovered relatively intact, but it still sickened several Kurdish fighters. Amazingly, the shell failed to explode because someone forgot to put a fuse into it. In Syria, near Hasakah and Tel Brak, ISIS launched several mortar shells or small rockets filled with a re-purposed agricultural chemical phosphine. 

My Comment:

I've talked about how ISIS was using chemical weapons before. Back then, ISIS used a car bomb and loaded it up with chlorine gas. That attack wasn't all that effective but it did demonstrate that ISIS was trying to learn how to use chemical weapons. It was a disturbing development back then, but these new reports are even more worrying. They seem to have refined their techniques and tactics. 

This is a major step up in the capabilities of ISIS. Using mortar rounds like this greatly increases the danger to their enemies, especially since almost nobody in the Middle East has gas masks handy. The ability to hit their enemies from a distance without having to waste a suicide bomber is quite an advantage. And other then the Syrian government, nobody else in the region has much recent experience with chemical weapons. Iraq, of course, had large stockpiles of chemical weapons at one point, but most of their knowledge in how to combat them has been lost over time. 

ISIS will be able to use these chemical weapons as a way to effectively harass their enemies. And if the reports of ISIS having gas masks is true, they could even use these chemical weapons as another way, along with massive car bombings, to weaken defenses before an attack. In both cases, chemical weapons will have a larger psychological effect then explosives alone. Chemical weapons are terrifying, especially when you don't have any way to protect yourself against them. They can also be used as an area denial tactic because many of these chemicals linger for quite some time. 

It seems like ISIS is still trying to figure out how to make these weapons work properly though. In the Iraq attack, they didn't even remember to put a fuse into their shell, which is kind of a huge mistake. That alone shows me that they are learning through trial and error. In the Syria attacks, it seemed like their shells were too thick to be an effective chemical weapon. Of course, even a poorly designed chemical warhead is a major threat. Even though the warhead in Iraq didn't explode it still managed to sicken several people. It goes to show though, how dangerous these weapons could be once ISIS gets them to work properly. 

As time goes by, ISIS may very well refine their techniques. Once they do so, chemical weapons, even crude ones, will greatly change the way the war against ISIS will be fought. At the very least, people will have to start wearing gas masks. There will also be the temptation for other groups to use the same kinds of weapons against ISIS, leading to a lower tech arms race. No good can come from that.

Right now, the priority for the United States air campaign should be to find out who is making these shells and destroying them and any factory involved in making them. Right now, ISIS probably does not have all that many people that know how to manufacture these weapons. If they live they will train others and they will export that knowledge to other battlefields. It is even a possibility that they could use the techniques they are learning in terrorist attacks on western targets. If the U.S. were to kill these people, not only will they disrupt the chemical attacks, it is possible that ISIS will no longer have anyone left with the knowledge to make the things. If we wait too long though, the results could be devastating...