Saudi Arabia breaks up major ISIS terror cell and arrests 400 people. AFP

The aftermath of a suicide bombing in Saudi Arabia committed by ISIS. Yahoo/AFP.

Saudi Arabia has broken up an ISIS terrorism ring and arrested at least 400 people. AFP. The Saudis claim the ISIS cells were planning new attacks on Shiite Muslim mosques as well as an attack on a diplomatic mission. The raids resulted in several deaths, including 37 security forces and civilians as well as 6 accused ISIS militants. 120 people were wounded in the operation as well. Of the 431 arrests, 97 were linked to an attack on a Mosque last December that killed 7 people. 190 more were involved in multiple attacks on Shiite Mosques and security forces. Despite the scale of the raids and the number of attacks carried out and foiled, the Interior Minster, Prince Mohammad Bin Nayef says the security situation in Saudi Arabia is under control. Saudi Arabia is deeply involved in the fight against ISIS in Syria.

My Comment:

It sounds like ISIS has a larger foothold in Saudi Arabia then I thought. Of course I knew that they had a presence there, but if these numbers are accurate, then they had several major cells active in the country. They obviously weren't to the point where they could take and hold territory, but the are able to commit some pretty horrific terror attacks.  

I supposes I should quickly mention that the Saudi justice system is pretty much a joke. They execute people for pretty much anything there and I don't know if I trust them to actually arrest people that are guilty of crimes. It is very possible that some innocent people got pulled into these arrests and it sounds like at the very least quite a few civilians were hurt or killed in this operation. I'm hoping that there aren't too many innocents caught in this dragnet but the Saudi justice system, such as it is, doesn't leave me with much confidence.

That being said, this is a major blow for ISIS in Saudi Arabia. The question now is if it is a deathblow. Losing about 400 people and having several major cells disrupted is a major setback, but it is possible for them to recover. For one thing, there may be other undiscovered cells operating in Saudi Arabia. Just because they disrupted a few of them doesn't mean that there aren't any more out there. And if recent history has taught us nothing, lone wolf style terror attacks can be pulled off by ISIS inspired terrorists with little or no help from the organization. 

There is also the fact that ISIS fighters can infiltrate into the country. ISIS has largely been pushed back from the Saudi border in Iraq, but they can still get fighters into the area. ISIS has been very successful with raids, with the recent attack on Kobani being a prime example. Still, their line of control is quite a ways away from the Saudi border, so perhaps the situation isn't quite comparable. That is assuming nothing changes though, Iraq's security forces have a recent history of collapsing at the worst times.

If Saudi Arabia did break up the main ISIS force in the country that should be a huge relief for them. After all they are fighting a bitter proxy war with Iran in Yemen. And there is always a chance, especially after the new deal with Iran, that the cold war with Iran could heat up into a very hot one. Should that happen, Saudi Arabia will be happy to know that their home front is secure. 

As for ISIS, I have to say I am impressed by their strategy here, even though it seems like it just completely fell apart. They know that Saudi Arabia is far too strong to take on militarily, even if they are distracted in Yemen. Their ground forces are strong and they have a huge air force with tons of deadly weapons at their disposal. Any major attack into Saudi territory with their more conventional forces would fail and fail quickly.

Clearly a frontal attack would not work. Instead ISIS went for a more insidious route. Though ISIS hardly needs an excuse to attack Shiite Muslims, doing so in Saudi Arabia has some pretty obvious advantages. The country has a large Shiite minority who don't always get along with the Saudi Kingdom. By attacking the Shiites, ISIS is showing them that the government can't always protect them. They are inciting prejudice as well, because very few people out there are willing to make the distinction between Sunni Muslims who hate you and want to kill you and the Sunni Muslims that barely tolerate you and rule over you with an iron fist. 

The idea is that sooner or later the Shia Muslims in Saudi Arabia will get fed up with being bombing targets and will revolt against the Kingdom. Then ISIS can sweep in in the chaos of yet another civil war and get a toehold in the country. Perhaps they could even threaten Mecca itself. 

Notably, this is the same goal that Iran has in Saudi Arabia as well. Their support of the Houthi rebels in Yemen has very little to do with Yemen itself, but it has a hell of a lot to do with inspiring Shiite Muslims in Saudi Arabia to revolt. One wonders who would benefit from an unstable Saudi Arabia more, Iran or ISIS?

Of course, if the terror cells have been broken up, the whole distinction is academic. Even if the plan would work, and there is no guarantee that it would, it can't happen if your whole organization is in prison awaiting decapitation. ISIS may rebuild to retry again, or activate other cells, but for now it seems the threat of a Shia revolt due to these terror attacks are slim to none.