My thoughts on Donald Trump's presidential run...

Donald Trump at an event in Iowa. ABC News/AP.

As much as I hate to talk about the candidacy of Donald Trump, he is currently leading in the polls. In a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, Trump has 24% of the vote among registered Republicans and right leaning independents. His closest competitors, Scott Walker and Jeb Bush, have 13% and 12% with all other candidates in the single digits. 

So what on earth does this mean? I don't consider Trump to be a serious candidate, so I am very hesitant to talk about him. But it seems like he may very well make a decent run on the presidency. He's polling very well in such a crowded race and he is completely dominating the media coverage. 

What do I think of him? Well, I'll go into some pros and cons for supporting Trump. These are written based on my position as a libertarian leaning Republican. 

PROS:

-He isn't politically correct. He says whatever he wants and never apologizes if he offends someone. In spite of myself I have to say that is incredibly refreshing. Unlike Martin O'Malley, he would never apologize for saying something as innocuous as "all lives matter". I hate political correctness, so if there is anything positive about Trumps campaign it is this. I just wish everyone else would follow his lead and stop letting the authoritarian left get away with the hecklers veto. 

-He is talking about issues that nobody else is willing to talk about. Would immigration even be an issue if he hadn't brought it up? Neither party wants to talk about immigration. Both Democrats and Republicans want Latino votes and they also both have business owners who want more immigrants in the country. That guarantees that nothing will ever be done about the issue. At least with Trump there is a conversation, however low quality it may be. 

-He is very wealthy which should make him less dependent on fundraising from special interest groups. Trump should also be very hard to bribe. 

-Trump seems to be halfway decent at pissing off Democrats. He isn't the best "troll" candidate, that would still be Scott Walker, but he does seem to rub the powers that be the wrong way. Admittedly this isn't a positive thing for everyone that is reading this but I do like a good troll candidate. Half the fun of voting for Scott Walker when he was running for governor was knowing that I was making people mad by doing so. 

CONS:

-He has no foreign policy experience whatsoever. He doesn't have much in the way of political experience either, but given how crazy the world is right now, it probably isn't a good idea to vote for someone who has no idea how warfare works. 

-Trump seems to be telling people what they want to hear, and not want he can actually deliver on. His position on illegal immigration is wildly popular and not held by any other mainstream candidate. It's pure populism, and populism always makes me nervous. It's the same thing with Bernie Sanders, but instead of free college and other socialist programs, it's kicking out all the immigrants. Regardless what you think of those things as goals, how on earth is Trump (and Sanders for that matter) going to accomplish his goals with both parties in congress fighting him all the way? It's wishful thinking at best and a cynical attempt at appealing to nativism at worst. 

-I don't trust his Republican credentials. At the very least he is not a fan of gun rights and has supported gun control in the past. He stated back in 2000 in his book that he supported the "assault weapon" ban and wanted longer waiting periods for guns. That doesn't sound like someone who supports gun rights to me. 

-If he fails to get the nomination he may rip the party apart. I have heard rumors that he is considering running as an independent, and if that happens he will give the presidency to Hillary Clinton, unless the unthinkable happens and Bernie Sanders runs as an independent as well, splitting the Democratic vote. Even if that doesn't happen though, he is drawing attention away from candidates that stand a better chance at beating Clinton in the actual election. 

-There is a real chance of him turning the presidency into a reality show if he gets elected. He's a showman, not a politician. If he gets elected I suspect he would spend more time playing to the cameras then actually doing anything presidential.

-He was utterly wrong about John McCain not being a hero. As much as I disagree with McCain on political issues, he wartime service was exemplary. I really can't understand how anyone could say he wasn't a hero, unless they either were people completely opposed to the military or follow the old Japanese bushido code of never surrendering even if you are completely incapable of fighting. I mean what did Trump expect McCain to do after he crashed his plane and was drowning in a lake? Pull out a pistol and shoot himself in the head? McCain did the best he could to under the circumstances and if I had been in his position I would be proud of myself if I had conducted myself half as well as McCain did. 

UNKNOWNS:

-I, personally, have very little idea where Trump stands on the issues. For example, I am very concerned about the NSA surveillance scandal. I have a decent idea of where the candidates stand on the issue, but I have no idea where Trump stands. There are a few people in that post that I wasn't able to find anything on, but I at least had an idea of where they were likely to fall on. I have no such clues for Trump. He could go either way, and my guess is that he would go wherever the winds were blowing. And that's true for pretty much any issue as well. I have no idea if he identifies with the libertarian wing of the Republican party or the social conservatives or if he is even a neo-conservative. He's flip flopped on abortion, gun control, gay marriage, and tax rates for the wealthy.I think he just says what he thinks people want to hear. That's not just a problem with Trump, it's true for every candidate to some degree, but it seems especially bad from him. 

-I'm half convinced that there is some kind of conspiracy going on. It's no secret that Trump is friends with Bill and Hilary Clinton and he has given money to their foundation in the past. Though it is unlikely, it is possible that his entire candidacy is just a stupid plot to get Hilary Clinton elected. Admittedly, this is tinfoil hat territory here, but it almost seems like it is possible right? 

So to summarize, I kind of understand why Trump is popular. He is telling people what they want to hear and doing it in a way that says he won't kowtow to anyone. There's an obvious appeal there. But other then that I don't see much in the way of substance. And I don't think he is anywhere near popular enough to beat Hillary Clinton in the general election. 

In my own personal rankings he is about as low as he can get. The only guy I like less in the Republican field is Chris Christie. Against the Democrats, I don't really see him being all that better then Clinton or O'Malley, but I do think Bernie Sanders is slightly ahead of him for me. I'm no fan of Sanders, but at least I can tell he has convictions and relatively consistent beliefs. I don't see myself voting for Trump unless it comes down to just him and Chris Christie. 

And, as always, it pays to analyze the populist candidate. So many times have the incompetent or the corrupt ridden a wave popular support, just by promising people what they wanted to hear. Our current president, a huge failure in my book, did the exact same thing back in 2008. We paid the price for that and we could again. Trump could very well be Obama 2.0 and I would really rather avoid that...

EDIT: I just had to photoshop the picture of Trump...