Houthi fighters inspect damage done by an Saudi airstrike. Yahoo/Reuters.
Mere hours after a UN brokered humanitarian cease fire went into effect, shelling and heavy airstrikes continued in Yemen. Reuters. The truce was to help 21 million Yemeni civilians, that have suffered immensely, with supplies and aid. Saudi Arabia continued their bombing campaign against the Iranian backed Houthi rebel movement, despite the cease fire. Saudi Arabia is claiming that Yemen's president in exile, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, did not ask them to stop the bombing campaign. With the cease fire broken, fighting arose in Aden, Taiz and the eastern province of Mareb. Houthi rebels and Yemeni loyalists fired artillery at each other while Saudi Arabia continued airstrikes. Without the cease fire it is feared that Yemeni civilians will not be able to reach critical food, fuel and medicine aid, which has trickled into the country despite a blockade by the Saudi led coalition. Peace talks have stalled over Yemeni demands for the Houthis to release prisoners and give up captured territories.
My Comment:
I've talked before about why these peace overtures are not going well. In short, the problem is that both sides are in too poor of a position to actually win the war but both sides are also strong enough that surrendering doesn't make any sense either. The loyalists have the support of a major local power in Saudi Arabia who isn't backing down. But the Houthis have control on the ground and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, baring a possible Saudi invasion. And they can't really do much to the Saudis offensively other then striking at their Yemeni proxies. With both sides in a decent position there is no reason to give up the fight.
The people that are losing are the civilians living in Yemen. They have been cut off from international trade and are reliant on whatever aid makes it through. Yemen was a very poor country even before the war, so it's not like they can stand on their own. It is a shame that this cease fire did not hold. I don't think they are quite at starvation levels yet, but things could definitely be better then they are now. And they will add to an already alarming refugee crisis from all the other wars in the Middle East and Africa.
As always, this is primarily a conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia. When you look at this as a proxy conflict between the two countries, it makes sense that Saudi Arabia is pushing so hard. They need to keep up the pressure on the Houthis because a large Shiite rebel pseudo-state on their southern border is and existential threat. Saudi Arabia has a large Shiite population who, to this point, have remained relatively docile. The fear is that having the Houthis win would inspire the Saudi Shiites to have an uprising of their own. Of course Iran would love that, so they are doing almost everything in their power short of war to help the Houthis.
It seems though, that neither side is going to get what they want in Yemen. The war is a stalemate, with no side anywhere near a victory. The only people that are going to be helped by it are Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). They have begun to capture territory and are beginning to establish their own mini-state in Yemen. Fortunately, they have been crippled by American airstrikes, so they are on the back foot too. But there is always a chance that the other main Sunni Jihadist group, ISIS, could gain a foothold in Yemen as well.
I think there could be an x-factor for this conflict. It seems like Iran and the United States are on the eve of some kind of nuclear deal. Most likely, Obama is going to give away everything to secure his "legacy", such as it is. That being said, with the status quo of Iranian sanctions being potentially wiped away, it's possible that Iran will have a free hand in Yemen. I don't think they would risk an all out war after a major diplomatic triumph, but their support of the Houthi rebels could become more overt.
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