Ebola cases drop to a new low. AFP

A health worker gives water to a child with Ebola last year. AFP.

Ebola cases have dropped to their lowest level since the outbreak began. AFP. There were just four cases in Guinea and three in Sierra Leone. Despite the much reduced infection numbers, there are still worries that the disease my spread in Sierra Leone. One patient came to a hospital with a headache and was released. Two days later the patient returned to a hospital and was found to have Ebola. As many as 500 people were exposed due to this error. In Liberia, no new cases have been reported. A mini-outbreak recently occurred just months after the main outbreak was declared over in the country. At this time there are no known Ebola patients in Liberia. In Guinea, all current cases are known contacts of previous victims, which is a good sign the outbreak is coming under control. 

My Comment:

It sounds like the long Ebola nightmare is almost over. The fact that we are under double digit numbers for new cases is a very good sign. It also sounds like the mini-outbreak in Liberia is over and the country is Ebola free once again. With all cases in Guinea confirmed to be known contacts it seems very likely that the outbreak is almost over there as well. Only Sierra Leone seems to be at risk, but if the doctors do their job they should be able to effectively track all the contacts the patients have.

If the trends are correct then Ebola may finally be eliminated from West Africa. The next step then becomes recovery and Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone have a long way to go. All three countries were devastated by the virus and none of the countries were exactly models of fiscal responsibility before they were hit with the virus. It is unlikely that any of them will be able to get back on their feet alone. 

Of course, there is always a chance the disease will come back. It is very possible that there is a natural host for Ebola. The new cases in Liberia are rumored to be because people ate a dead dog that may have been infected with Ebola. And there is always a chance of a man that recovered from the virus could spread the disease through his seminal fluids. In theory people wouldn't have sex after catching Ebola, but you can say the same thing about HIV/AIDS, and that disease is still going strong... 

Still, it looks like the disease is finally going away. So what have we learned? For one thing, we learned that the international community is not ready for a large outbreak of a deadly disease. The outbreak could have been ended in the initial stages if the WHO and other aid groups hadn't given up on treating the disease when it looked like it was under control. And the international response in general was far to slow and didn't really address the outbreak until it was out of control. Much liek the farmer who closes the barn door after all the cows escaped, we didn't react to Ebola until hundreds were infected a week. 

We also learned that something as simple as a disease response could be politicized. To this day I can't understand why casual travel wasn't banned from Ebola effected countries. If it had been there never would have been an outbreak in the United States. Somehow the idea of banning travel from Ebola effected countries became racist. Probably because conservatives were in favor of it. After all, these days racist has become a code word for anyone that disagrees with liberals on any issue. We ended up being lucky that it didn't cost us anything more then a few cases. Next time we might not get so lucky.