Yet another new offensive for the city of Aleppo in Syria, this time with Al-Qaeda leading the charge. BBC.

Map of control for Aleppo. BBC/Carter Center/Google

A new rebel alliance has opened up yet another offensive in the city of Aleppo in Syria. BBC. The new alliance, called Ansar al-Sharia, is a coalition of 14 Jihadi groups, including al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front. Along with more secular western backed groups, the alliance has launched attacks throughout the city. The rebels have launched hundreds of rockets and artillery shells at the Syrian regime held areas in the city. So far the advances the rebels have made have been minor, due to heavy airstrikes and counter artillery fire from the regime. One of the main targets, the Air Force intelligence headquarters at Zahra, remains in regime hands. Though the offensive seems to have stalled out for the moment, it is clear that this is a major escalation. Never before have so many rebel groups coordinated attacks on this scale. 

My Comment: 

Aleppo has been a major battlefield for practically the entire Syrian civil war, so this new offensive isn't all that new. But what has changed is how closely all the rebel groups are working together. Both the Jihadi groups, like al-Nusra, and the more secular western backed rebels, are coordinating their efforts. That's been true to some extent since the battle for Idlib, but it really seems now that the groups are working well together. 

The battle lines in Aleppo have been fairly static for quite some time now. It seems odd that no progress has been made in the battle since the Syrian regime has some very large salients that could be exploited if the rebels were to attack them. Just looking at the map, it seems like there are at least two major ones that could be nipped off, which would result in regime forces being completely surrounded. So far though, these corridors that connect the various regime strongholds haven't fallen. I'm sure that it's not due to a lack of effort on the rebels part, but you would think that they would be the main targets. 

The BBC article mentioned that it is possible that the Syrian regime will slowly pull out of Aleppo, and the southern city of Deraa as well. That would allow them to old onto the main regime strongholds on the Western Coast and the capital of Damascus. With Hasakah and Dier ez-Zor in a precarious position in the east of the country, it seems like the best plan for the Syrian regime would be to pull back. The benefits of this would be obvious. 

But will they? I think if things get bad enough they will. I just don't think they are at that point right now. The hold on Aleppo is still strong and Deraa is at least contested. Hasakah and Dier ez-Zor are in a worse predicament but aren't in immediate danger of falling either. Abandoning these cities now would be a huge blow to both morale and the prestige of the government. They can't take that kind of hit, their morale is low enough as it is. 

Of course these four battles are bleeding the regime dry. Just ferrying supplies to Hasakah and Dier ez-Zor, which are cut off from the rest of the country, has to be a huge drain on resources. If they were to pull back from some or all of these cities they could greatly increase the strength of their core areas and make their last stand against the rebels and terrorists. 

And, to be clear, it really looks like this is the beginning of the end for the regime. ISIS is very strong and is putting incredible pressure on regime strongholds. Al-Nusra and her allies have carved out a hunk of territory as well and have had some major victories recently. And in the south, a more secular and palatable rebel alliance is threatening the flank. 

Syria's enemies are stepping up their game while it seems as its allies are abandoning them to their fate. Russia has largely left Syria alone, while the Iranians seem to be distracted by what is happening in Iraq and Yemen. The gulf states have picked up the pace in terms of supplying the rebels and there are rumors that Turkey may even deploy ground troops to attack the regime's Kurdish allies. I have no idea how accurate those rumors are, but if they are true that alone may be enough to destroy the regime. 

So what happens if Aleppo falls? What happens if the Syrian regime collapses? My guess is that there will be a major genocide for the Alwates, either by ISIS or al-Nusra. One of the two terror groups will probably end up being in control of most of the country, with the other rebel groups, regime holdouts and the Kurds holding onto their one patches of territory. There won't be an end to the fighting.