A deal has been reached concerning Iran's nuclear program. AP

World diplomats pose for a photo after the historic nuclear deal for Iran. Yahoo/AP.

Iran and the international community have reached an agreement concerning their nuclear program. AP. Iran has agreed to restrict their nuclear ambitions in exchange for the end of sanctions. The agreement is said to prevent Iran from producing nuclear materials for 10 years and will force them to accept inspections as a condition. The arms embargo placed on Iran will continue for 5 more years and military sites can be inspected as well. The deal now faces opposition in US congress, which is likely to do everything they can to undermine the deal. U.S. allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia and Israel are furious and consider the deal to be a huge mistake. The deal is a likely economic windfall for Iran. They could gain up to $100 billion due to the end of economic sanctions and the release of seized overseas funds.

My Comment:

That last sentence should tell you that Iran is the one winning in this deal. Those sanctions were in place due to other things besides their nuclear program, or, at the very least, they should have been. Iran has a long history of being terrible, both to its people and to everyone else in the region. Keep in mind that we were in a de-facto war with Iran during our adventure in Iraq. Iranian backed militias, the same that are now fighting in Iraq as our ersatz allies, killed American soldiers during the Iraq War.

And that's not even touching what they do to their own people. Iran cracked down hard on their own people when they protested election results back in 2011. Their treatment of homosexuals is abysmal. Gay men in Iran are given a choice. Become transgender and transition into a woman or be executed. Iran also has treated religious minorities poorly as well. In short, the Iranian government has done a lot of bad things unrelated to its nuclear program.

So will this deal accomplish anything? Well I can think of a lot of bad things that will come from this deal. First and foremost, Israel and Saudi Arabia will have some kind of response. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a war. For both countries, a nuclear Iran is an existential threat, that will not be taken lightly. It may also cause the Saudis to start their own nuclear program or buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan, leading to an arms race in the region. There is a real possibility of a cold war in the region. 

Second, it could allow the Iranians to keep up their military adventures in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Yes there is still an arms embargo, but the billions of dollars that the Iranians will receive because of this deal will be spent somewhere. And right now Iran's goal is to become the premier power in the middle east. It is very possible that they will now be able to afford to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and make gains in Yemen, which could destabilize Saudi Arabia. That is, of course, not in the United States best interests.

Finally, I think the inspections will be pointless. Sure, official sites will be monitored but Iran managed to get a loophole. They are able to delay or contest any inspections of military sites, which would of course give them a chance hide what they are doing. It may make Iran's nuclear ambitions a bit harder to pull off, but they won't stop them entirely. 

So if the deal has some pretty obvious downsides why did it get approved? Well there are a couple of reasons. First, Obama really wants to do something to salvage his foreign policy legacy. Ending the conflict between Iran and the United States would be quite a feather in his hat... if it holds. Already there are rumors flying of Congress torpedoing the deal, so it is too soon to tell if it will even happen, but even if it does, what the legacy going to be if war between Iran and its neighbors is the final result of this deal? Don't get me wrong, that's not what I want to have happen, but I do think it is possible. 

But there is another more important reason for the deal and that is money. There is a massive amount of money to make in Iran. Not only are they going to export their oil, which should lower oil prices worldwide, they are going to be a huge market for international corporations which have, until now, been forbidden to trade in Iran. Everyone involved in these negotiations want a piece of the $100 billion pie which has just been unleashed. Some of that money is going to be reinvested into Iran and everyone wants in on that action. 

To summarize, America is pissing off our allies and turning a blind eye to Iran's obvious and terrible human rights abuses just so they can make a little cash. That is what is known in Political Science as realpolitik. It's ok to sell out your friends and risk a regional war if it means you can make a few bucks and secure your legacy if you happen to be an unpopular president.Even if it means you have to work with a country that is opposed to most everything you believe int. Not that Saudi Arabia and Israel are that great of allies and have their own human rights issues, but they are certainly better then Iran.

Time will tell how bad this will get. The best case scenario is an acceleration of the already brewing cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The worst case scenario is a shooting war between Iran and Israel, Saudi Arabia, or even both. And since one of those countries is a nuclear power and the other two have aspirations, this could get very ugly indeed... I'd love to think that everything will work out fine and that this deal will usher in a new era of peace in the Middle East, but I don't think anyone really believes that. Any positives from this deal will be short term and is merely kicking the can down the road for the next generation to deal with...