Russian convoy heading to Ukraine. Yahoo/Reuters

The convoy sets off. Yahoo/ReutersTV

Russia has sent a convoy of 280 trucks filled with humanitarian supplies for the besieged cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Yahoo/Reuters. Russia plans to drive the trucks to the border of Ukraine where the supplies will be offloaded to Red Cross trucks. The convoy could take several days to arrive. Ukraine and Western powers are skeptical of the move, fearing it will be cover for a covert operation. Obama and other western leaders warn that the convoy would be illegal if it was a unilateral intervention, even if it was for humanitarian reasons. 

My Comment:

This is a very savvy move by Vladimir Putin. It is a win-win situation for him. He knows that without these supplies the defenders of Donetsk and Luhansk will be starved out and forced to surrender. Sure, these supplies will help the civilians trapped in the cities but there is no doubt in my mind that enough of these supplies will reach the fighters that they will be able to fight on for sometime. If not indefinitely, at least long enough to force a diplomatic solution. 

Ukraine, of course, is aware of that so they may prevent this convoy from entering the country. This would also be a win for Putin. Not only would Ukraine have to convince the world that allowing people to starve in these cities would be justified, but it would also be the perfect pretext for an invasion. And Russia would have a point, the citizens of Donetsk and Luhansk should not be allowed to starve to death. Ukraine is in an impossible situation here. Either they allow the convoy in and give the rebels a second wind or they refuse it and lose everything. 

Either way Putin will win in the end. Should the convoy be allowed in he can just wait until winter to cut off gas supplies and bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. He can then force their hand and make sure that Ukraine doesn't fall into NATO's sphere of influence. Should the convoy be turned away he has a casus belli for war. He can use the starvation of civilians as a justification for the war and the eventual annexation of these territories. The first option is probably preferable for him but I think he would settle for the second one. Which should concern everyone. Other then Russia, nobody gains anything from a major war in Europe.