Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson share an awkward handshake. CNN.
I'm finally going to post my reactions to last nights debate. The debate lasted for a lot longer then I thought it would and there was no way I could get it up last night or this morning. Better late then never I guess.
I watched the entire debate... all three hours of it, and the "kiddie table" debate that happened before the main debate. I'm not going to talk much about the first debate as I don't think any of the candidates there have a shot. As far as I am concerned nobody won that debate, though Lindsey Graham showed that he was the biggest war hawk in the race. None of the other candidates even made an impact for me in that debate. And I was also just embarrassed that Bobby Jindal and Lindsey Graham were so desperate for media attention that they couldn't even show up for the group picture.
As for the main debate, it was very entertaining. There were a ton of good moments and I think the moderators did a very good job, even better then Fox News. I was surprised at how balanced the questions were and was very happy that gun rights actually came up. I do have to say that the format was desperately trying to get the candidates to fight each other. That's entertaining, but it doesn't help people make up their minds.
And I don't think anyone "won" the debate. I think a few candidates will have their stock rise, but I didn't see any knockout blows here. I know people are going to be talking about Carly Fiorina, but she wasn't the only one to have a great night. Either way though, I am going to go through all the candidates and say what I liked and what I didn't like.
Donald Trump:
Trump didn't dominate the debate like he did last time but overall I think he did a very good job here. He survived everything that was thrown at him and didn't lose too many of the fights he got into. I think he won all of his fights against Jeb Bush and Rand Paul while he fought Carly Fiorina to a standstill, on their work history at least. I also liked a few of his policy goals. For example, his idea for the Syria situation is to just let Syria and ISIS fight it out and let Russia get involved with a quagmire if they want. He also stated his opposition to the Iraq War, which will probably help him, Ben Carson and Rand Paul.
I was also very impressed during the section on abortion. While every other candidate doubled down, Trump positioned himself as a less radical alternative. Not hard when the other players are demanding to shut down the whole government over planned parenthood, but Trump is showing that he is the least extreme choice on the issue by defending women's health. This could very well hurt him in the primaries, but once the general election comes it removes a line of attack that the Democrats can use against him. He's still pro-life, but compared to Ted Cruz or Carly Fiorina, he's a much more palatable pro-life for anyone that's on the other side or doesn't care about the issue. I think this is a brilliant move by Trump and should he be the actual nominee, it will help him greatly in the general election.
I also have to say that it looked like Trump was having the time of his life. He was laughing, high fiving people and generally having a good time. Trump might be a jackass, but he is a fun jackass and all his high fives and handshakes will help him at the polls. And I think that the fact that he could high five Jeb Bush even though they were at each other's throats all night speaks positively to both of their characters.
But it wasn't all good news for Trump. I think Carly Fiorina won when they fought about her appearance. He screwed up there and for the first time I think someone got the better of him. He didn't have a good option there as every response he would have made would have lead to calls of sexism, but I think his response of calling Carly beautiful didn't help him much. Not that I have a better option for him, but still.
Finally, coming out as an anti-vaccine candidate is really going to hurt his chances. There is no link between vaccines and autism, period, and the fact that Trump tried to claim that there was really hurts him. To their credit, Dr. Carson and Dr. Paul shut him down and forced him to waffle on the issue. Still, this will probably bit Trump in the ass long term and really reduced my opinion of him. Hopefully, he backs down on the issue.
Ben Carson:
Ben Carson didn't really have any huge moments at this debate. I don't think he did anything that hurt him, but he also did little to help. I don't really remember any specific policy claims either. I will give him a lot of credit for not pilling on like the other candidates were even though the moderators were practically begging for him to do so. For example, when Trump talked about vaccines, Carson clearly disagreed with him, but he did not attack Trump. That made Carson look likable and humble. I also loved his two tiered minimum wage idea. I don't know if it would work but it makes a lot more sense then our current system.
Like Trump, I think Carson scored points by stating his opposition to the 2nd Iraq War, but his opposition to the war in Afghanistan can hurt him. Though he may have a point that there were other options instead of invasion, the war in Afghanistan was the most justified war for America since World War II by a large margin coming out against it will not help Carson.
Other then that, it was a quiet night for Carson. I didn't really change my opinion of him all that much, just confirmed what I thought of him already. He's a very nice person with a humble, almost meek, personality. He's light on policy, but he's also light on criticism that can be used against him.
Jeb Bush:
Not a whole lot of nice things to say about Bush. I do think that he his performance at this debate was a lot better then it was at the last debate. He had some good jokes and he actually looked like he had a pulse for once. I also think he scored some points in "defending" his wife against Trump, even thought I think Trump won that engagement and had a really good point. Bush really is too close to the immigration issue to be unbiased. He also had a few nice moments with Trump and the high five at the end really humanized both him and Trump. I don't know about everyone else, but I think people that have fierce political and personal disputes like Bush and Trump that can put aside those differences for a moment of levity and unity are alright in my book.
Still, I don't think this debate will help Bush all that much. He got beaten in every fight he had against Trump. A couple of times it seemed like Bush had Trump against the ropes, but he never was able to land a killing blow. The fact that Trump was able to fight Bush to a standstill over his wife of all things, shows that he wasn't able to win any of his battles with him.
Bush also has increased his problems connected to his brother. Sure, it's fine if Bush thinks that George Bush kept America safe. You could even make that argument. But I don't think that line gets Bush applause in anything other then the friendliest of audiences. Admittedly, it got applause during the debate, but that just proves my point. That would not have happened anywhere else. For most of the country, fairly or unfairly, George Bush is still the guy that got us into the Iraq War for stupid reasons. This only hurts Jeb Bush.
Scott Walker:
Was Walker even in this debate? Once again, I can barely remember anything he said. The only conversation I remember is when he had that zinger against Trump. It was a pretty good line and doubled as an attack on Obama, but it was the only memorable moment of the debate for Walker. To the point where I am struggling to find anything else to say about him. Indeed, on twitter the only time I mentioned Walker is by saying that I forget he was even there.
Again, I don't think this will hurt Walker all that much, but it sure as hell doesn't help him. I don't see him winning the nomination at this rate.
Ted Cruz:
Again, Cruz didn't make much of an impact on me, but when he did it was all negative. Cruz came off as a dangerous extremist. His statements on Iran went way further then anyone else and I don't think it helps him. Crucially, his plan to shut down the government over Planned Parenthood is just terrible. It is not going to help anything.
The last time the Republicans shut down the government it was a PR disaster for them. And that was over the debt limit, an issue that at least has some bipartisan support. Abortion is not one of those issues and shutting down the government will have a huge galvanizing effect on the left. Just like gun rights is an issue that the left has lost, abortion is an issue that does nothing but mobilize and infuriates the left. Trying to elect a candidate who tried to shut down the government over abortion will hand the presidency to the Democrats just like the Democrats shutting down the government over gun rights would give the presidency to the Republicans. Be opposed to abortion if you want. Hell, be passionate about it. But shutting down the government is not the way to solve the problem.
Other then that I don't think Cruz made much of an impact. He didn't really stand out.
Carly Fiorina:
I think Fiorina really made a name for herself in this debate. She had a very strong performance, sounded impressively knowledgeable about the issues and was incredibly passionate. She scored points with her fight with Trump and with her impassioned condemnation of abortion. I was also impressed with her foreign policy recommendations. Unlike almost other candidates she had actual numbers to back here up and had concrete plans to, for example, restore the 6th fleet.
Still, I don't think this was such a slam dunk for Fiorina as everyone thinks. She was fought to a standstill with Trump over their business records before Chris Christie effectively shamed them both into shutting up. He remarks about Russia are, quite frankly, insane. We absolutely need to talk to Valdimr Putin. Cutting off communication with him is the absolute last thing we should be doing. Hell, we even talked to Stalin back in the day and he was pure evil. It just makes sense to try and talk to people that have nukes pointed at us. As someone who wants better relations with Russia, this "no talking to Putin" policy that Fiorina has scares the hell out of me.
And her impassioned defense of abortion is also a mixed bag. I think it definitely helps her with the pro-life faction of the Republican base. But much like Ted Cruz, I think this moment will be played for the duration of the campaign if she ends up the candidate. When I heard it live I just pictured Hillary Clinton salivating at the thought of fighting Fiorina about it. Abortion is a losing issue for Republicans and spending political capitol on it will just hurt them. Sure it helps you during the primary phase but it will kill you during the actual election.
Marco Rubio:
Again, I was very impressed with Rubio. He stayed out of the fights for the most part, and when he did have to fight he generally won. Not through direct attacks but through policy recommendations. When Trump attacked him about missing votes in the Senate, Rubio admitted it but immediately neutralized the attack by showing that the system is broken. Rubio did this a couple of times during the debate, never rising to the bait, and kept out of the petty fighting. I was impressed
And he was very strong on policy. Marco Rubio is very good at explaining his policy arguments in a clear, concise and convincing way. I don't always agree with him, but it's very clear where Rubio stands on any issue. Unlike some of the other candidates, Rubio comes across as an expert.
He did have one painful moment where his joke at the start fell flat, but other then that my personal ranking for him has raised. Out of all of the "establishment" candidates I think I like him the best.
John Kasich:
I was really not impressed with Kasich's performance. I think he had the worst opening statement and that was about the only thing I remembered about him during the debate. He got out competed whenever he was in a discussion and I don't really remember him making any good points, other then when he told Carly Fiorina that there was plenty of time to attack Hillary Clinton. Still, I feel this debate was a huge step back for Kasich since he did a very good job during the first debate.
Mike Huckabee:
Once again, Huckabee had some really good moments in this debate. He had the best opening statement and a decent closing one. I loved the fact that he was the first candidate in either debate to bring up gun rights and I also loved how he talked about how we should find new ways to cure diseases like Alzheimer's and cancer. As someone who is likely to get all of those diseases, it was a nice touch,
Other then that though, Huckabee didn't really have any showy moments that will be talked about in the future. He certainly didn't hurt his chances last night but without getting into any fights, he kinda faded away. I don't think his defense of Kim Davis, the Democrat who didn't want to issue gay marriage licences, will help all that much in the general election. And see above about why I think his attack on abortion rights will hurt him in the end.
Still, I think Huckabee did a great job of bringing up things that need to be talked about. I don't think it helps him win the election, but I do appreciate him steering the debate somewhat.
Chris Christie:
I'm on record on saying that Christie is the worst candidate in the election on either side and I stand by that. But even I had to admit that he had a great moment in shutting down both Trump and Fiorina. He had a really good point there as well, nobody cares about who the better CEO is, just tell us what you are going to do for real people. I'm no fan of Christie but credit where credit is due. That was a great moment and I am glad that he said what we were all thinking.
Other then that though, I didn't buy Chris Christie for a minute. He is trying to turn into some kind of conservative maverick but I know he is a RINO. Sure, talk all about how much you want to prosecute Hillary Clinton or invoke 9/11. He's still a basically a Democrat.
And it infatuated me that when the issue of gun rights came up, nobody attacked Christie over it, not even Rand Paul, who hates Christie and hit him over the NSA in the last debate and over medical marijuana this time. Chris Christie is the governor of a state where the right to keep and bare arms does not exist in any meaningful way. People need to point this out and hit him hard on the issue.
Rand Paul:
Again, even though I agree with Paul the most on policy, I don't think he did a very good job last night. All he did was attack people and did very little to show how he was different then the rest of the pack. Instead of putting his own policies out there to stand on their own, he just attacked other peoples ideas.
Sure Trump picked a fight with him, but to be fair to Trump, Rand Paul did the same thing to him during the first debate. Turnabout is fair play and I think that Paul got blown out here. And his attacks on Trump and Christie fell flat. Trump is way better at attacking people and Christie has the advantage that Trump keeps picking on him. And his attack on Bush for smoking pot fell flat as well.
The few good moments for Paul came when he stopped his attacks and just talked about what he wants to do. Paul isn't suited for being an attack dog. He's a libertarian and showing how he is different then the other candidates should be his greatest strength. But he isn't playing to his strengths.
Conclusions:
I can't declare a winner here but I do think this debate certainly helped Carly Fiorina and Jeb Bush and didn't hurt Trump, Carson and Rubio. I don't think there were any knockout blows here either. It's possible that someone will drop out because of the debate, but if so it's going to be one of the guys in the kiddie debate. We are still a long way from choosing a candidate, but I think we are getting closer from separating the wheat from the chaff.
I'm looking forward to the next debate and I am also looking forward to the Democratic debate as well. Even thought there are a faction of the candidates I really want to hear what the zeitgeist is on the other side of the coin. I really want to see who the nominee is going to be on the Democrats side and if Hillary Clinton can survive. Hopefully the first Democratic debate will be the final nail in her coffin,.
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