Thursday, September 24, 2015

ISIS takes responsibility for mosque bombing in Yemen that has killed at least 25 people. New York Times.

Houthi rebels inspect the damage at the mosque. New York Times/AFP/Getty. 

A mosque bombing in Sana, Yemen has killed at least 25 people. New York Times. The ISIS terrorist group has taken credit for the attack, which involved two separate bombs, including one delivered by a suicide bomber. ISIS released a claim taking responsibility on social media. The attack is seen as part of ISIS's strategy to inspire hatred between Shiite Muslims and Sunni Muslims. The victims of the attack were Shiite Houthis, many of which were rebels fighting the Yemeni government. The attack comes on the heels of an earlier mosque attack in Sana which killed 32 people. The bombings raise questions about how securely the Houthis control the capital of Sana, which has been under heavy bombing from the Saudi Arabian led coalition during the civil war between the Houthi rebels and the Yemeni loyalists. 

My Comment:
I've said it a million times by now but ISIS loves chaos like what is happening in Yemen right now. That's how they gained power in Syria, Iraq and Libya. I think if either side had complete control of Yemen, then this attack would not have happened. It wouldn't matter if it were the Houthi rebels or the Yemeni government, either side would have crushed ISIS by now. But since both sides are fighting a bitter war against each other, ISIS, as well as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has an opportunity to conduct attacks, take territory and plan operations. 

And ISIS really is following the same playbook that has served them so well in the past.The strategy to pit Sunni and Shiite against each other is nothing new. Indeed, ISIS's old organization, al-Qaeda in Iraq, ignited the Iraqi civil war by bombing the Golden Mosque in Samara, Iraq, twice, which infuriated Shiite Muslims throughout the region. ISIS has constantly tired to repeat the success by targeting Shiite Muslims specifically for attacks. It also helps that they consider Shiite Muslims to be apostates who deserve nothing but death. 

There seems to be very little that can be done to stop these kind of attacks in a country as unstable as Yemen. After all the whole country is at war. The Houthis and the Yemeni government are in a knockdown drag out fight and they just don't have the resources to fight ISIS or AQAP. What is needed is a third party to attack these terror groups. As far as I know, the United States is still occasionally targeting AQAP targets in Yemen but I haven't heard of them fighting ISIS yet. As long as that is the case, ISIS will have the ability to attack in Yemen. 

I think that is probably because ISIS isn't anywhere near the "taking and holding territory" step in their plan in Yemen yet. Right now they are still mainly conducting terror attacks and murders in Yemen. They just don't have the recruits and weapons to take territory. And AQAP has taken most of the territory that was up for grabs in the first place. It will take time for ISIS to build the forces to attempt to take territory in Yemen and even then they will have to face at least three other factions that want the same land. 

As for Yemen itself, I see no end to the war that allowed all of this to happen in the first place. Neither the Saudi coalition or the Houthi rebels have a huge advantage over each other, though the Saudis seem to have the upper hand at the moment. With the Houthis still in control of Sana, it is way to early to say that they are being beaten back. And they have inflicted heavy casualties on the coalitions various members. 

I mentioned yesterday that Egypt may use their new helicopter carriers in the war in Yemen. I also said that the war would probably still be going on by the time those ships are ready for battle. But even if they aren't, Egypt may still have cause to use those ships in Yemen. I don't think the problem of ISIS is going to go away in Yemen anytime soon. And even if they do, there is still AQAP to fight as well. 

We haven't heard much from ISIS lately, largely because there have been other issues here in the States. After all, we have a presidential campaign going on and the Pope is visiting. And we in America always get distracted by stupid social issues. But even disregarding all that, ISIS hasn't been too active lately. They haven't taken a major city since Palmyra and I think that has a lot to do with it being summer. Now that fall has arrived and the temperatures are beginning to cool, expect the action to heat up. Indeed, it sounds like ISIS is massing forces near the Syrian city of Deir Ez Zoir. It will be interesting to see if the Syrian regime will fight for it, with or without their new Russian allies... 

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