Sunday, September 27, 2015

France launches their first airstrikes against ISIS in Syria. New York Times.

French President Francois Hollande announces the strikes. New York Times/AP.

France has joined the war against ISIS in Syria by conducting their first airstrike there. New York Times. France identified an ISIS base with their intelligence aircraft with assistance from the US and local allies. Six jets, including 5 Rafales, completely destroyed the base, which was used to train recruits. No civilians were reported killed in the airstrikes. France may conduct additional airstrikes in Syria if targets become available. Earlier this month, Francois Hollande claimed that France was going to start intelligence flights over Syria. In the past France has been reluctant to strike ISIS targets in Syria due to the fear that doing so would help the regime of Bashar al-Assad. However, the migrant crisis and the recruitment of French citizens to ISIS has forced their hand. 

My Comment:
The skies over Syria are getting awfully crowded. France is just the latest in a long line of powers who have joined the war. ISIS is everyone's problem and it seems like everyone is trying to take some kind of token action against them. But that's the problem. A few airstrikes aren't going to be enough. Until someone sends in ground troops, and a lot of them, ISIS will continue to exist. 

That being said, I do appreciate France for their efforts against ISIS. Though they won't be a major factor, they will contribute. Any country that takes on ISIS is ok in my book. And France has a very competent military. The fact that they were able to get 5 Rafales into Syria speaks to their prowess. I am guessing the last jet mentioned in the article was some kind of refueling craft. 

With the airspace over Syria getting so crowded, there needs to be some kind of coordination to avoid any kind of incident. With Russia and perhaps even China getting into the fight against ISIS, the chances of some kind of accident happening grows. The worst case scenario is Russia either shooting down a NATO or Arab aircraft or the reverse happening. Due to the lack of communication, this is definitely possible. Hopefully there will be some coordination going on, but even if it does happen, there is always a chance of something happening with so many planes in the air. 

As for ISIS, this strike won't do a whole lot. Yes they probably lost a bunch of recruits, but from a purely practical standpoint, that's a lot better then losing a bunch of seasoned and experienced fighters. And the camp itself is probably very replaceable. What isn't though is their trainers. ISIS only has so many experienced people to draw from that are also competent at training recruits. If they did lose any trainers, that is a hard loss for them to accept. 

Like I said though, the airstrikes alone won't do much. I've said before, that ground troops are always necessary to fight a ground army. Air power alone can not win a war. Right now I am not sure if anyone is willing to risk their troops to fight ISIS, other then Assad and the Kurds. Yes, Russia is going to deploy troops, but I am still convinced that they will primarily be there to protect Assad's regime and not to conduct offensive operations against ISIS. They will give Assad's forces some backbone and keep the Syrian regime from falling completely but they will not destroy ISIS alone. 

But then the question becomes if not Russia, who? Who on Earth will deploy enough forces to destroy ISIS. Both America and the EU have enough troops to do so but neither have the will. The local Arab countries are either too busy dealing with the refugee crisis or with the war in Yemen. Iran is contributing forces but not enough to turn the tide. Turkey could help as well, but they are much more concerned with fighting the Kurds instead. And the various rebel groups spend so much time fighting each other and the regime that they can't do much either. Some of them are almost as bad as ISIS. And don't get me started on the U.S.'s efforts to train secular rebels... 

This is almost a propaganda victory for ISIS. Even though no single country is deploying enough forces to defeat ISIS, it is clear that a lot of countries are trying to do damage to ISIS. Some of those countries are world leaders with massive, powerful armies. To survive such attacks from such powerful foes might convince possible recruits on the fence that ISIS really is going to win. Without any commitment to destroy ISIS from anyone, I think they might have a point. 

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