A Saudi airstrike in Sanaa. Yahoo/Reuters.
Saudi Arabia has continued its offensive against Houthi militants in Yemen, with heavy airstrikes and naval bombardment of the port city of Aden. Yahoo/Reuters. The new attacks are the first since the Saudis "ended" their campaign in Yemen. At least five airstrikes pounded the city while residents reported naval vessels bombarding the city as well. Yemeni loyalists brought heavy armor and Katyusha rockets into the battle for the fist time. The loyalists were able to take several rural areas in the southern province of Dalea.
My Comment:
Well, that cease fire didn't last long at all. Looks like they are pulling out all of the stops. The number of airstrikes was fairly small but the naval attack was significant. Naval bombardments aren't nearly as precise as airstrikes and they carry a large risk of civilian casualties. They also require a good forward observer to direct the fire. My guess is that the Saudis may have people on the ground to direct these strikes, both from the ships and from the air. I doubt they will admit to it though.
The fact that the Yemeni loyalists are deploying armor and rocket artillery is significant as well. The Yemeni Army probably doesn't have all that many tanks and to deploy them is a very strong indicator of how important the battle of Aden is. Aden is really their last major stronghold and if they lose it they lose almost everything. The deployment of the Katyusha rockets is important as well because they are rather indiscriminate and carry a large risk of civilian casualties. To deploy them is to admit that you are in dire straights.
It does seem that the Houthis are getting pushed back. I don't know how long it will take the Yemeni forces to take back Aden, but at this point it seems like it will happen, barring something crazy. The Houthi rebels are in a bad situation. They aren't likely to get resupplied anytime soon, and they are getting pounded from both the air and the sea.
Their major ally, Iran, had to turn back their convoy of supplies that were headed to the region. Part of that was because of the naval blockade that the Saudis set up, but the main factor was the United States. We deployed an aircraft carrier group which would have been a huge deterrent for any kind of naval operations for the Iranians. From what I understand there was diplomatic pressure placed on Iran as well. Obama basically told Iran to pull back their convoy or there would be hell to pay. A bit out of character for Obama lately, but it did seem to work.
This leaves the Houthis in a very bad position, but they still have some advantages. Their enemy is still weak and largely dependent on Saudi support. Once the Yemenis push their way out of Aden the road will get even tougher. The Houthis are tough fighters and once they are pushed back to their strongholds in the north they will be able to dig in and keep up the fight. This war in't anywhere close to being over.
Finally, the war is having a devastating impact on the people of Yemen. The deployment of heavy weapons and airstrikes is part of it. You can't send an artillery barrage, airstrike or naval shelling in a heavily populated city like Aden and not see heavy casualties. They are also running into severe supply problems due to the fact that Yemen has to import most of its goods. They were a very poor country before all of this happened with little manufacturing and resources. The war will just put more pressure on the situation. And to tie it into the reoccurring theme of my posts this month, it will add even more bodies to the vast exodus of refugees into Europe...
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