Will the United States take Kharg Island from Iran?

 

Smoke from a missile strike on The UAE on March 14th. CNBC/AFP/Getty.

President Trump hinted that America might "take Iran's oil" and may take over Kharg Island, Iran's main oil hub. CNBC. Trump compared it to the successful action in Venezuela that led to a change of leadership and de facto control over the states oil. The Iran conflict has lasted around five weeks and has caused some disruption to oil markets. The Washington Post says that the Pentagon is preparing for a weeks long ground operation as thousands of troops have entered the region. 

My Comment:

Keep in mind that Trump is pretty good at misdirection when it comes to foreign policy. His words really don't mean that much and we don't actually know what he is thinking. This could be an effort to force Iran to defend Kharg Island while the actual target could be elsewhere. 

Do we have enough troops in the region to take Kharg Island? Yes. We have around 10,000 combat troops there, including two Marine Expeditionary Units aboard our amphibious assault ships, along with a couple thousand paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne. That's more than enough troops to take the island, and hold it, from the Iranians. 

Does that mean it's going to happen? Absolutely not. I see this more of a threat than anything else. Trump usually doesn't telegraph moves so transparently and doing so is not likely in this case. I feel that this is more of a threat than anything serious. 

Trump's main goal here is to get the Iranians to give up there nuclear material and cut a deal with the United States. This is another threat like the previous one to destroy Iran's energy generation. Again, we could have easily done that as well, but we backed off on it, most likely due to humanitarian concerns. It's probably why the threat didn't work, Iran didn't believe that we would do it, but they might believe that we could take Kharg. 

Is it a good idea militarily? You could say so. Iran absolutely needs Kharg Island if they want their oil to be sold, it's their most important hub. Taking it would cripple them. Doing so would not be difficult and neither would be holding it. The Marines and the 82nd would be well suited to take the island and much of the defenses there have already been destroyed, though Iran has made moves to reinforce it. 

Politically though? I am not sure. Such an operation would absolutely lead to US casualties and most Americans are opposed to boots on the ground. The casualties might even be heavy, though not so heavy that the operation wouldn't be sustainable. That too would play extremely poorly politically, folks want to avoid a "quagmire" and any casualties for our ground forces would play into that narrative. 

It's why I think if ground operations do happen, they will be raids, not taking and holding territory. Think the Venezuela raid, not the Iraq War. And I think there would be very different targets than Kharg Island, the main goal would be to fully open the Gulf of Hormuz, so a raid on areas with missile bases or naval docks would be likely goals. 

As for the course of the war itself, I do think that it's likely to not last too much longer. Trump is clearly talking to somebody, though it's also obviously not the IRGC or the Ayatollah. My guess is the actual secular Iranian government, or perhaps the military, wants to make a deal wile the country's religious leadership, including the IRGC, are keeping this from happening. I just don't see how the IRGC can stay in power long term with so much of their leadership dead and eventually a deal will be made.