President Donald Trump. CNBC/Getty.
President Trump has sent Iran a 15 point plan to end the conflict. CNBC. President Trump said that Iran was eager to make a deal and that talks were proceeding, though Iran has denied the specifics. The New York Times reported that a 15 point plan had been delivered to Iran via Pakistan. Pakistan has offered to broker an end to the war. Trump also repeated claims that Iran has already lost the war and is willing to give up nuclear ambitions.
The New York Post detailed the 15 point plan. One of those demands was not revealed but 14 of the points were released.
Iran would agree to the following:
Iran must dismantle existing nuclear capabilities
Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.
No uranium enrichment on Iranian territory.
Iran must hand its stockpile of enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled.
The IAEA must be granted full access to Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Iran must abandon its “regional proxy paradigm.”
Iran must cease the funding, directing and arming its proxies.
The Strait of Hormuz must remain open.
Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity.
Iran must limit its use of missiles to self-defense.
In return Iran would get the following:
The end of sanctions imposed by the international community.
US assistance to advance its civilian nuclear program.
A “snapback” mechanism allowing for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply would be removed.
My Comment:
Like I said yesterday, it's unclear who Trump is negotiating with. Ayatollah Khamenei remains missing in action and nobody appears to be in charge of Iran's religious leadership. My guess is that we are negotiating with Iran's secular leadership. Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, remains alive, probably for this very reason. I am guessing it is his leadership that Trump is negotiating with, not the religious leaders, or, failing that, someone else in his government or the military.
This plan seems more than fair. Iran would be forced to stop doing all the things that have made every government in the region hate them and made them a threat to most of the hemisphere. Getting rid of their nuclear material was always going to be the biggest issue and without agreement there the war will absolutely continue.
Iran's missiles are a major threat too and one that probably justified the war. Recently, Iran attempted and failed to target Diego Garcia, our base in the Indian Ocean. The attack failed but it showed that Iran had the missile capability to hit most of the capitals of Europe. They will be forced to give up this capability in any peace deal as well.
Most notably, Iran would be forced to cut off funding for their armies of proxies in the region. This means that Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen would have to self fund. In all likelihood, this would lead to those groups dissolving, as nobody is going to want to fight for a cause that can't afford to buy weapons or even pay their troops. This would hugely increase the stability of the region and would be a massive win for everyone, outside of those groups of course.
Iran would get a lot out of this deal as well. They would get an US managed nuclear program, not that they really need it. But they would also lose the sanctions that have crippled their economy. One assumes that Iranian oil would be allowed to be sold on the market and foreign companies would be able to invest in Iran again. This would again be good for everyone, gas prices would plumet and Iran's economy would recover.
So will Iran go for this? Again, it depends on who is in charge. Iran's religious nutjob leadership will never accept this, but it doesn't seem like they are in charge. Iran's secular leadership seems a lot more reasonable and if they are in charge I can absolutely see this happening.
The problem is that they aren't the only ones with a vote. Both Israel and the Gulf States may have different demands on ending the war, mostly demanding regime change. Given that Israel is a party to the conflict, getting them on board will be critical. I don't know if Iran will be receptive to a regime change or not and it could be the stumbling point to any peace deal.
Either way, I do think we should be optimistic that a deal will be made. I think it's moderately more likely than Trump simply declaring victory and going home now. A lot can still go wrong but I think it's very possible that Iran will decide that peace is the best option now.
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