Trump hints that Cuba may have major changes soon.

 

President Donald Trump. Politico/AP. 

President Donald Trump is hinting that Cuba may have a major change in leadership soon. Politico. Cuba may have been sent a warning as Trump said that he "might have the honor of taking Cuba" and that he could do "whatever he wanted" with the communist nation. Cuba and the United States have had some talks but the island is under an extreme energy crisis after being cut off from Venezuelan oil. Cuban Americans have wanted Cuba's communist government to fall for decades now. 

My Comment:

The communist regime in Cuba is at it's weakest point in recent history. Cutting of the oil and money from Venezuela has been a disaster for them and nobody has picked up the slack to provide them oil due to the extreme pressure from the United States. Power went out completely today to the point where even essential services aren't working. 

It's not something Cuba can sustain long term. There is a limit that the Cuban people will accept and losing power long term is not something they will tolerate. If a deal isn't made soon, the Cuban people might just take out the regime themselves. 

Talks are ongoing and the sticking point is likely the Trump Administration's demand that Cuba's president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, step down. How strict that demand is isn't something I know, but I am guessing it's pretty non-negotiable. Trump wants to do what he did in Venezuela, replacing a hostile president with a lot more friendly attitude. 

The real question is if they are going to keep the regime without the leadership like they did in Venezuela or are they going to go for a full replacement? I can't see the Cubans going for the 2nd option, but I would also think that Marco Rubio and other prominent Cuban American settling for the 1st. Perhaps some kind of compromise where the regime stays in place for now but new elections are held soon?

Regardless, I do think that the Cubans will be motivated to make a deal. They simply don't have much of a choice. Getting cut off from energy is going to destroy their regime, and fairly quickly as well. Like I said, they won't want to wait until the Cuban people take matters into their own hands. 

But they have to be thinking about Trump's more aggressive foreign policy. They know that they won't have much of a chance if Trump decides to take them out, just look at what happened in Venezuela and Iran. President Diaz-Canel must understand that not making a deal with the United States is likely to end his life. 

I would not expect it to come to that though, and certainly there aren't the forces in the area to press the issue and there won't be until the Iran conflict ends. The US military probably could handle two conflicts at once, but there is the idea they should finish one conflict before starting another. 

But we can do two things at once. We can negotiate with Cuba and fight Iran at the same time. And if a deal is made we will get another vassal in our collection, to go along with Venezuela. Cuba isn't as valuable as Venezuela is, but they have been a thorn in our side for my entire lifetime and beyond and ending the Cuban regime would be a major accomplishment.