President Trump signals that the conflict with Iran may not last much longer.

 

President Trump at a press conference. NPR/Getty.

President Trump has signaled that the conflict with Iran may not last much longer but has not given an end date. NPR. Trump said that the United States had great success against the Iranian fleet and Air Force. He also said that due to the destruction of Iran's military he could end the operation now and call it a great success, but he would not end the war until Iran's nuclear capabilities were totally eliminated. Trump said that he had held off on hitting certain Iranian targets, like power generation. The conflict with Iran has caused volatility in the oil markets, but prices dropped today after a weekend panic. 

My Comment:

Folks are pretty happy that Trump is announcing this. Though people are divided on the war, nobody likes the economic disruption it is causing. Oil prices spiked dramatically yesterday, but dropped just as dramatically today, for multiple reasons. Nobody wants a long war with Iran and everyone would be a lot happier if it ended very soon. 

I do think that Trump is absolutely right, so far the Iranians have been rocked. As many as 42 of their ships have been destroyed, their Air Force is grounded and wrecked and even the last F-14's in active service appear to have been completely destroyed. Much of Iran's leadership is dead and every time one gets replaced they get killed as well. Indeed, there are already rumors that Iran's latest Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former Ayatollah, may already be wounded or dead. 

And Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz? Not effective. Though many ships are stuck waiting for the conflict the end or for escorts to show up, there have been as many as 20 ships that have run the strait and none of them have been sunk. They just shut their transponders off and go through the Strait and Iran hasn't been able to do a thing about it. 

Given the military situation, i do think Trump is right. He could end the war today and call it a success and it would be hard to argue otherwise. It will take years for Iran to rebuild their drone and missile forces and decades to try and build up air defenses, an Air Force and a Navy again. And I do think that this is a possible way that the war will end, especially if the economic disruptions end up being real. 

But I do think there are a couple of war goals that aren't yet accomplished which will prevent President Trump from doing this. First, the nuclear material that Iran produced has not been secured and either it will have to be destroyed through an airstrike (which is unlikely), surrendered as part of a peace deal, or secured directly on the ground. The last operation has been hinted in the media but if that's the case I am guessing we are in for weeks of bombings to make sure that operation isn't opposed. 

Second, I don't think President Trump wants the current Iranian regime to survive. And neither does anyone else, with the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah being the only exceptions. Israel has their own war goals and they absolutely want the Iranian regime gone, and so do the Saudis and the other Gulf States. A Venezuela situation where the United States turned it int a vassal state, or more accurately a suzerainty, doesn't seem possible with the current Iranian regime and I don't see how the war ends with the current Iranian government still in power. They would have to give up a lot in order for that to be acceptable to the Israelis and the Gulf States, and I don't know if the Iranians are there yet. 

Regardless, it does seem like the war is more likely to last weeks as opposed to months or years. Iran no longer has a credible military and there are signs of extreme stress on the regime. The main issue is like I said, the regime still exists and so does the nuclear material. But I also don't think that this will last much longer. Of the three outcomes I think the Iranian regime bending the knee to Trump or falling completely would be the most likely, and a special forces raid to be the least likely. But in any case, I do think we are close to the end game.