FBI warned that Iran could attack targets in California.

 

A recovered Shahed 131. US government photo. 

The FBI has issued a warning that Iran could attack targets in California with drones. ABC News. The FBI said they had gathered intelligence indicating that Iran could use drones in such an attack if a conflict broke out. The attacks could come from shipborne drone carriers or from troops in Mexico. However, Governor Gavin Newsom said that he was unaware of any threats. There have been major incidents with drones from the Mexican border, but those have been operated by the Drug Cartels, not Iran. 

My Comment:

It's very strange that this report is coming out now given that if there ever was a threat from Iranian drones, it's almost certainly over now. Iran's fleet is in taters at this point and their drone carrier, the IRIS Shahid Bagheri, has either been crippled or destroyed. I don't know if Iran possesses any vessels at this point that could even reach the United States, let alone launch a drone attack. 

In theory, the threat was serious. Iran theoretically could launch a drone attack from a ship, either their dedicated carrier or from a converted cargo ship. If they were able to achieve surprise they could potentially launch an attack. 

But even then, I doubt it would have been successful. The Pacific Ocean is protected by the US Navy and they are regularly patrolling for suspicious vessels. This has only increased due to naval operations against drug smugglers. The Iranians would have to somehow evade the US Navy an Coast Guard. 

And even if they launched an attack? They would have to have their drones evade our air defenses. US air defenses are pretty good and we have pretty good anti-drone technology as well. Indeed, we have used our anti-drone lasers and other weapons against drones threatening our homeland before. In theory, if Iran somehow achieved total tactical and strategic surprise, they might be able to evade our defenses. But right now, I can't see it happening. 

The main threat cited by the FBI was an airborne attack from the ocean. The ABC article cited an expert that said the threat could come from Mexico. That seems even less likely than the attack from the sea. Mexico does have a small Iranian presence, but I seriously doubt that the Iranians were able to get a bunch of drones into the country without anyone noticing. And, again, the border is where our anti-drone defenses are the strongest. 

Regardless, I generally think that this report is outdated and the threat was mostly theoretical in the first place. Iran could have tried this before their fleet was destroyed and their military capabilities were degraded but if there ever was a threat, it's gone now. 

Indeed, I don't think that Iran would have even wanted to do this. A direct attack on the US Homeland would be a massive escalation. If they had tried this and succeeded it would be the equivalent of Pearl Harbor. Blowing up a lot of Californians would likely unite the country and silence any anti-war voices and would invite a retaliation on a scale that the Iranians can scarcely imagine. And it could even lead to an actual ground invasion. Iran's strategy appears to just be to wait it out at this point and hope that President Trump will settle with the destruction of their military. Launching a major attack on the American homeland would be cross purposes for that.