President Trump announces energy cease fire in Iran, claiming talks are ongoing.

 

President Donald Trump. BBC/EPA.

President Trump announces a five day energy cease fire in Iran, claiming talks are ongoing. BBC. Trump had previously threatened to destroy Iran's energy production. Iran has denied any talks are ongoing but it is unclear who in the Iranian government Trump is negotiating with. Trump said that Iran had agreed to give up the pursuit of nuclear weapons, a major war goal. Some question if the story is even real as Trump is well known for keeping his personal thoughts about military conflict close to the vest and is known to mislead his enemies on military matters. 

My Comment:

It's hard to comment on what President Trump is doing when it comes to military conflict because he does believe that it's stupid to telegraph what he is planning. He's got a point, keeping your enemies confused is a valid strategy and one that has worked for him in the past. 

And I also think that's just as true for Iran. I would be shocked if they weren't talking to the United States in some fashion and I have seen other media reports that they are using intermediaries in the region to pass messages to and from the United States. 

The real question is who Trump is actually talking to. He has specifically denied that he's talking to the new Ayatollah Khamenei, who might not even be alive after injuries sustained in airstrikes. But could it be the Iranian President? Some general that wants out? Some other high ranking figure? Or someone representing Khamenei? Who knows? 

I am guessing that whoever it was blinked. Iran's government's grip on the country is already weak for many reasons, most notably a water crisis in the capitol. Had Trump actually destroyed Iran's energy infrastructure it would be the end of the Iranian regime as it stands right now. It would be an absolute disaster for them. They would not survive. 

It does raise the question on why Trump didn't just do it. I am guessing it's because it would be a humanitarian disaster as well. It would also mean that it could turn Iran into a failed state. That would be a good way to end the war but it seems likely that the war is going to end with a negotiated settlement at this point. 

So, will that happen? It's probably the 2nd most possible outcome. I still think Trump declaring victory and going home is the more likely option. But it's more likely now that a deal will be made with someone from the regime. It does seem like a complete regime collapse is a lot less likely than the other outcomes at this point.