Ukraine hit with major corruption scandal.

 

Zelensky along with his Justice Minster, Herman Halushchenko and the head of  Ukraine's power company Enerhoatom, Petro Kotin. BBC/Reuters.

A major corruption scandal has hit Ukraine after evidence of major kickbacks in the energy sector. BBC. Energy Minister Svitlana Grynchuk and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko were accused of laundering $100 million they embezzled from the energy sector. Some of the money they stole was supposed to go to defending and rebuilding the energy sector, which has been under attack from Russia. The corruption was discovered by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP). Zelensky himself almost faced a rebellion last July when he tried to remove the independence of those offices, but backed down after fierce protests, the worst since the Maidan revolution. Zelensky himself was not directly implicated in the scandal, but he was close to many of the major players.  

My Comment:

This is a huge scandal for the Zelensky regime and one that has potential to destroy his presidency. Of course, it would probably take a coup or a revolution to get rid of Zelensky at this point, as long as the war is going on. It's the biggest threat Zelensky has faced domestically since the war began. 

This corruption is beyond the pale. I have never been a fan of Ukraine and their current government and even I am disgusted with this. The funds that these men stole were earmarked for repairing and defending the energy sector. Given that Russia has been pressuring Ukraine's energy system to the point of collapse, the actions of these men have potentially cost Ukraine the war, or, at the very least, made the war a lot harder to win/survive. 

None of this should be surprising though. Ukraine has always been famous for corruption. Indeed, both the Maidan revolution and Zelensky election were fundamentally about ending corruption, but in both cases not much has been done. The fact that they are in the largest war since the turn of the millennium has not changed a thing. 

This scandal is a huge problem for Zelensky of course. He was knee deep with these people, both his Energy Minster and his Justice Minster were deeply involved in the scandal and he has close ties to some of the other players. And everyone, both domestically and foreign, is going to be extremely upset to see the photos of the stacks of cash and golden toilets that were stolen from the people of Ukraine. I'm mad about it because of my tax dollars but imagine how angry you would be if you were an Ukrainian civilian who is suffering under siege from Russia without power or heat while the leadership has stolen the money that was supposed to prevent that? 

And though Zelensky hasn't been directly implicated in the scandal, the optics are absolutely horrible. Zelensky made waves last July when he tried to take over NABU and SAP. That was bad originally, but now we have the absolute appearance of an attempted coverup. It seems very unlikely that Zelensky would do that if he wasn't aware of the corruption in his government. 

Of course, the elephant in the room is the fact that Ukraine is getting destroyed on the battlefield right now. Russia has taken Pokrovsk and cut off thousands of troops in the Pokrovsk pocket, and they have lost a lot of territory in the Zaporizhzhia region as well. They are also losing the energy war as the energy system is barely functional and it's only because Russia doesn't want to completely destroy it for humanitarian and optics reasons that there is any energy at all. In short, it's absolutely not the time to have a massive scandal. 

What will the fallout be? I am not sure. Zelensky is going to be extremely hard to remove due to martial law and the cancelation of elections. He's a dictator at this point and you can't really get rid of dictators unless they step down voluntarily, they die, or there is some kind of major coup/revolution. Right now, none of those things are likely, but the chances just got better. 

Western support, however, might be at risk. It really depends on how the scandal unfolds. Right now Zelensky at least fired the people involved but if the scandal grows and shows direct involvement in corruption for Zelensky himself, Western support might be gone. My guess is that Europe at least is too invested to cut Ukraine loose even if Zelensky is found in bed with a dead woman or live boy, but America and some other supporting powers might finally cut him loose if this scandal gets worse. Especially in the context of the major battlefield defeats Ukraine has suffered. However, Zelensky has proven to be very resilient so I wouldn't be surprised if he does survive this.