Newest US Russia-Ukraine peace plan would involve Ukraine giving up territory.

 

Turkey's President Erdogan with Ukraine's President Zelensky. Reuters. 

Newest US Russia-Ukraine peace plan would involve Ukraine giving up territory. Reuters. The deal would involve Ukraine losing territory, including all of Donbas as well as Crimea as well as giving up certain weapons systems and reducing the size of their military. In exchange Ukraine would get an end to the war, security guarantees from the United States. No foreign peacekeepers would be deployed to Ukraine and they would also have to give up their aspirations to join NATO. The security guarantees would involve arms sales and intel sharing but would not invoke America joining the war if it were to start again. Ukraine hasn't signed on to any deal, but President Zelensky is meeting with Turkey's President Erdogan which could lead to more negotiations, given Turkey's warm relations with both countries. 

My Comment:

This proposal, which hasn't officially been revealed, seems like a fair one and an expansion of previous offers. Previous offers did not give Russia enough for them to seriously consider the deal, but this one, which mandates at least some level of disarmament for Ukraine, seems like it would be a lot more likely to be accepted, at least by Russia. 

Russia would stand to gain the territory they want and would be ensured that Ukraine would never join NATO, which was a major war goal and a casus belli for the war in the first place. They would also be ensured that no NATO armies, labeled as "peacekeepers", would be deployed to Ukraine to restart the war. Presumably they would have major incentives, including the lifting of sanctions and normalizing of relations. 

Ukraine would be an obvious loser in this, but it's not like they would get nothing, which is what they would get if they continue the war. I am guessing if Zelensky torpedoes this peace deal, if Russia is on board, he will be cut off from support. Ukraine would also continue to get aid and arms sales from he United States and would ensure friendly treatment from the United States, so it's not like they would get nothing out of this agreement. 

Zelensky might be under major pressure to make a deal as well. I wrote earlier about the scandal rocking his administration, a scandal that could bring him down if he doesn't manage it. Brining an end to an unpopular war might save him when next to nothing else will. Of course, Zelensky is also the biggest stumbling block for any deal as well as he has major incentives to keep the war going. Like I have always said, he's at risk from being killed or removed from hardliners in his government and military and he might think continuing the war would be worth it. Not to mention that he will likely lose any election held after the end of the war regardless if he plays a role in it ending. 

Europe could be a problem as well. Some states are starting to feel major war fatigue, like Germany and might be willing to end things. But I worry about Eastern Europe, who hate Russia to the point they want World War III, and the UK, which has legitimately gone insane over the issue. Europe might not have a choice in the matter though, given that Trump is clearly bypassing them in the first place. 

Either way, this is probably the last, best, chance for peace. Russia has shown some major battlefield advances and their attrition strategy is working. Ukraine is having massive manpower problems and it's only a matter of times before their defensive lines collapse completely. At that point Putin will no longer have any reason to make a deal and the war will end with a total Ukrainian defeat.