President Donald Trump. ABC News/Getty.
President Trump hasn't ruled out attacks on Islamic militants in Nigeria after killings of Christians. ABC News. Responding to a question about if troops would be deployed to Nigeria Trump said "could be". Trump said that he wasn't going to accept the mass killings of Christians in Nigeria and the statement comes after he said that he might go in "guns-a-blazing". He said that Nigeria's government "better move fast" on the issue. Nigeria's President Bola Ahmed Tinubu objected to the description of the killings as a genocide and said that he was working to protect people of all faiths in his country.
My Comment:
Some context is needed here. There are indeed a lot of attacks targeting Christians in Nigeria. This is nothing new. Indeed, Boko Haram, the former ISIS affiliate, is still launching attacks to this day. Boko Haram is not even close to the power it once was, but it's still a major terror group.
Unfortunately they aren't the only Islamic terror group active in Nigeria anymore. They have a new and more dangerous spinoff terror group that is a current ISIS affiliate, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Unlike Boko Haram, ISWAP is a much more organized and professional military force and use modern tactics like drones and car bombings. They are doing the same kind of things as Boko Haram was and is doing, including terror attacks, abductions, forced conversion and some attacks on Christians.
However, it seems like the majority of attacks are being conducted by the Fulani militants. These attacks are pretty explicitly anti-Christian but the difference is these are more like village raids and marauding than traditional terror attacks. These folks aren't an organized terror group, they are more of an ethnic group of herders active in trying to take resources away from the Christians in the area.
All of these groups are indeed systematically killing Christians and the Nigerian government is not doing much against them. Boko Haram isn't the threat it used to be but it's still active and both ISWAP and the Fulani militants are running rampant as well. Of course, it's not just Christians getting killed, all groups target other religious groups as well, including their fellow Muslims. But it's also clear that the Christians that are getting killed are being targeted directly. Does that meet the definition of genocide? It should so Nigeria's complaints here are pretty stupid.
Is military action likely? Depends on what you mean by military action. The idea that the United States would deploy large amounts of troops to Nigeria is pretty laughable to me. There is no appetite for that kind of thing in the United States right now, war fatigue is extremely real and it would endanger Trump's genuine hope for a Nobel Peace Price in 2026.
Logistically it would be a mess as well. We simply don't have a base in the region anymore. This is another example of the Biden Administration screwing everything up. In 2023 there was a coup in Niger, where we had a major drone base, and that base go closed down because Biden had a problem with the coup. That might have happened regardless, but some realpolitik decisions might have had that base stay in US hands. Right now, there really isn't much we can do without a major air base in the region.
Of course, this could be a motivation for Trump's statements here. He needs a replacement base in West Africa and Nigeria would do nicely. The United States is obviously very concerned about terrorist groups in West Africa, we learned what happens when a dysfunctional government isn't able to do anything about Islamic terrorists, given what happened with Afghanistan during the turn of the millennium and the chaos that happened in Syria, it's a valid concern. Trump does care about the massacre of Christians too, but I wouldn't be surprised if getting a new base to monitor and strike against Islamic terror groups, like Boko Haram and ISWAP, isn't at least part of the calculation.
Still, it's not likely that we are going to send in the troops because of Nigeria. This is classic Trump hardball negotiations and if folks still don't understand how he works, then they haven't been paying attention. Trump usually makes bombastic threats while at the same time trying to make backchannel negotiations. I am guessing that Marco Rubio, Secretary of State and busiest man in Washington, will be working on getting some kind of deal in place.
Of course that doesn't mean that there won't be military action of some type, indeed, I expect it. I am guessing that there absolutely will be airstrikes or drone strike targeting the terror groups. ISWAP will be the primary target of course, but I think Boko Haram could get some attention as well. I am guessing the Trump Administration recognizes the threat that allowing these terror groups to take and hold territory can cause and given how dangerous both groups are, I would be surprised if we aren't making a move against them. Airstrike strike me as being very likely, though I doubt we will see much in the way of "boots on the ground" outside of potential new airbase in Nigeria. I guess some special forces could be deployed as well, but this won't be a major military action.
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