Ukraine again refuses to withdraw from an encircled city again, as Zelensky visits the front lines.

 

Destroyed buildings in Pokrovsk. BBC/Ukrainian military photo. 

Ukraine is again facing destruction in an encircled city as Zelensky visits the front lines. BBC. Zelensky visited the area of Pokrovsk, where Russia has besieged the city and the neighboring city of Myrnohrad. Zelensky and his generals say that troops caught in the Pokrovsk encirclement are not actually encircled. Russia's control of the airspace has made reinforcement and resupply difficult, possibly impossible. Pokrovsk was a major logistic hub and a fortress city for Ukraine. 

My Comment:

Ukraine has fallen for the same trap they have fallen into again and again, not leaving a city when they are getting surrounded. This makes an actual evacuation very unlikely without heavy casualties. Pokrovsk is largely captured and Russia now has fire control over the pathways out of the city. Unless Ukraine gets some favorable weather or some kind of miracle I am guessing that the 5,000 to 10,000 troops that are still in this pocket are going to be in serious trouble. 

I understand that at one point Pokrovsk was a major logistic hub and "fortress" city for Ukraine but at some point enough is enough. Ukraine seems to not understand the idea that trading lives for territory is not always a good idea, but it's a terrible one when you are absolutely running out of lives but have all the territory in the world. 

Instead, they are doubling down. By now, almost everyone has seen the assault that Ukraine launched with a small special forces team in a rare helicopter assault. The small team was supposed to open a corridor and draw forces away from the cauldron, but instead they were apparently wiped out with drones fairly quickly.  

This is the kind of warfare that we are seeing in Ukraine right now. We mostly aren't seeing massed armored assaults on either side due to the fact that drones have changed the game. On both sides when armor is assembled, it gets spotted and then attacked by drones. Instead, Russia is attacking in small groups, or even individuals and combat is man-to-man, while many of the casualties are being inflicted by drones. Indeed, Russia released footage of those Ukrainian special forces getting killed or wounded by FPV drones. 

With Russia now having direct control of many of the routes out of Porkrovsk and Myrnohrad, and indirect control over the secondary routes, this kind of drone (and artillery) attrition is likely to continue. Indeed, from what I understand Ukraine isn't really resupplying these troops via the ground anymore, they are doing so with their own drones. 

Ukraine is trying to launch minor attacks of their own and have had some success, but it isn't doing what they want. Russia isn't going to move troops out of Pokrovsk unless there was some kind of real collapse, and I can't see that happening at this point in the war. I really don't think there is anything that Ukraine can do that can reverse the progress that Russia is seeing in the city.