The saber rattling against Venezuela continues as Trump closes air space and demands President Maduro resigns.

 

President Nicholas Maduro of Venezuela. New York Post/AFP/Getty.

The saber rattling against Venezuela continues as Trump closes air space and demands President Maduro resigns. New York Post. President Trump and Nicholas Maduro held a high stakes call. At issue is Maduro's alleged support of drug smuggling and narco-terror groups that are smuggling drugs into the United States. Maduro had demanded that he would be allowed to remain in control of the military before free elections and that he be pardoned for any potential crimes. Trump refused and said that Maduro would be given safe passage out of Venezuela. Talks broke down at that point with Trump closing Venezuelan air space in response. Trump has also threatened strikes against the drug gangs in Venezuela. 

My Comment:

Venezuela kind of popped up out of nowhere. I know Venezuela got a lot of blame for the drug smuggling issue and the Tren De Aragua issues we have had in the United States, but given the multiple other foreign policy issues that have cropped up, they were low priority. 

First of all, I have to say that a full scale Iraq War style invasion is pretty much impossible at this point. We don't have anywhere near the troops in the region to even attempt it, and there is zero desire for anyone in the United States, outside of the crustiest of neocons, for that to happen. There has been a troop buildup but it's mostly naval assets. 

There is a small chance of some kind of military conflict, but it would come in the form of airstrikes, not an invasion. I am guessing that drug smuggler bases or ports could be attacked, given that would be the casus belli of the conflict. A direct attack against Maduro itself could be in the cards too, but that would be more difficult. 

However, I don't think military action, beyond the naval stuff we have seen already, is really in the cards. President Maduro seemed rather open to leaving power and the fact that he was asking for amnesty and agreeing to elections, probably indicates he is fairly desperate for a deal. And, from what I understand, members of his regime are attempting to save their own necks as well as their Presidents. I would not be surprised if this does have a diplomatic resolution. Neither side seems so steadfast in their positions here that a deal can't be made, and given that Trump was downplaying the air space closure today, I am guessing more talks are going to be held. 

Indeed, this seems like a classic Trump maneuver. Though Trump has been called many things, the one thing you can't deny is that he's a diplomat at heart. He wants to be the guy to end conflicts, not start them, so even if things do degrade into military action, expect them to always leave an out for Maduro. It reminds me of the conflict with Iran, where Trump was working for a peace deal even as he bombed Iranian nuclear strikes. The last thing he wants is a real conflict. 

The timing for this is not great though. Trump was widely praised by his base for, finally, refocusing on domestic issues after the Washington DC attack on National Guardsmen. In response Trump finally took some real action on immigration, something that his base was demanding for a long time. 

What I can tell you is that nobody in his base is very excited by the fact that the focus seemed to last less than a holiday weekend, and he's right back onto foreign policy. Indeed, I'm rather annoyed myself. The Washington attack was something Trump should have hammered down on given how preventable the attack was and how much of a winner the issue is for Republicans. Venezuela though? Nobody really cares about that. It's not even an urgent situation, compared to something like the Russia Ukraine war. Sure drugs are a problem, but domestically, things need to be handled. 

Regardless, like I said, I fully expect a diplomatic solution. Maduro seems to get that the gig is up and is looking for an exit and the only question is the how and when. I am guessing that airstrikes will be avoided and that Maduro will step down and leave the country for a place like Russia.