BBC/EPA.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio says there has been "tremendous progress" in a proposed Russia-Ukraine peace deal. BBC. The statements came after Trump put pressure on Ukraine to end the war via his Truth Social account. There had been concern from Pro-Ukraine factions that the deal proposed last week was too generous to Russia and it is unclear what, if any, concessions were given to Ukraine. However, Ukraine does seem to be positively reacting to talks. The US plan was a 28 point plan and progress has been made to narrowing Ukrainian objections to the plan. Russia has vowed support to the leaked plan and it is unclear how much work needs to be done to bring the parties together. Trump gave Ukraine until this Thursday to agree to a deal, though he latter said that there may be further offers.
My Comment:
I do hope that Rubio didn't give away the goat with this revised deal. The previous version, lambasted in the media as pro-Russia, seemed quite the opposite to me, given that Zelensky would remain in power and Ukraine would be allowed to have a military and "security guarantees". Indeed, the only thing that I thought was pro-Russia is that there wasn't an equivalent exchange of land in the North that Russia captured for the disputed Donbas territories.
As a review, the original plan called for Ukraine to give up all of Donbas, claims to Crimea and the line in other areas would determine by where the front lines are. It would incentivize Russia by ending sanctions and giving one of their war goals, no path to NATO for Ukraine. Ukraine would get to keep a smaller military and would have to accept Russia as an official language (racism against Russian speakers was a major reason why the war started in the first place).
I am guessing that Ukraine got some kind of face saving concessions if they are positive about this. I think the exchange of land could be a thing that they would agree too in the most current draft. Russia controls some minor territories in the north near Kharkov and Sumy, and these could be exchanged for the parts of Donbas they have yet to conquer. Russia would still be gaining more than they would be losing but it would allow Ukraine to say that they didn't give away the farm either.
What concerns me is that the deal might be for stronger security guarantees for Ukraine. Anything that could potentially draw America into a conflict with Russia is not something I would support, so any kind of mutual defense pact would be a deal breaker for me. How much of a concession Ukraine got here could be the thing that breaks the whole deal apart. Such a deal would be unlikely for obvious reasons, Ukraine would then have a motivation to restart the war with the United States as an ally, but you never know how much they gave away.
Will Russia play ball? I think it really depends just how far these concessions go. Russia does have some motivation to end the war, but keep in mind they are winning right now. Much of the Ukrainian military is getting caught up in cauldrons and it's clear that Russia's attritional strategy is working. They have little reason to give major concessions to Ukraine under any circumstances given how strong their position is on the battlefield.
However, the original deal did seem like it was finally listening to what Russia was saying. They don't want NATO to expand, they don't want a militarized Ukraine and they don't want Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine to be discriminated against. If some concessions are made to Ukraine (and the land swap one seems very obvious) than it's very possible that they will accept.
I do hope that if Zelensky refuses to accept even this watered down proposal that President Trump finally throws up his hands and cuts him off. I have never liked Zelensky and I give him the lion's share of the blame for this war continuing as long as it has. The original deal was better than he deserved so I am hoping that Zelensky sees the writing on the wall and ends the war, despite the threats against him and his presidency.
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