United States to partially evacuate embassy in Iraq as tensions with Iran increase.

 

File photo of Blackhawk helicopters near Baghdad. BBC/Getty.

The United States will partially evacuate the embassy in Iraq as tensions with Iran increase. BBC. Families of diplomats throughout the Middle East have also been given permission to evacuate. The move comes as talks with Iran appear to have reached an impasse with President Trump saying that he was growing less confident that Iran would stop enriching Uranium. Trump also had a "tense" 40 minute phone call with Israel's Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu who has long favored a military solution to Iran compared to Trump's diplomatic approach. The Pentagon believes that Iran is moving closer to a nuclear weapon. It is unclear if the moves are due to a genuine fear of war, as Iran has threatened US troops and diplomats in Iraq if a war happens, or if it is an attempt to leverage Iran into a deal. 

My Comment:

Other sources are saying that Israel is prepping a strike on Iran to disable their nuclear program, though they didn't really have any other information or confirmation in their articles that wasn't included in the BBC report. This is not unexpected, Israel has been saber rattling against Iran as long as I have been alive. But it certainly is concerning. 

With that being said, this could just be saber rattling and an attempt at bringing Iran to heel. Trump may be acting as the "good cop" while Israel is acting like the "bad cop". The theory would be that the threats and evacuations show that they are willing to go to war if Iran doesn't play ball, but leaves open the possibility that peace could break out. 

Unfortunately I don't think that's the case, as relations between Trump and Netanyahu have cooled, largely over this issue. Trump obviously doesn't want a major Middle East War to break out as it isn't something he wants. And it's certainly not what his voters want either, Trump was elected on an anti-war platform. But given that Trump made a separate peace with the Houthi Rebels in Yemen and has been somewhat critical of their war in Hamas, with a deal still not made, I don't know how much influence Trump has in this situation.

As for Israel, I think this is completely boneheaded. Iran has been "close" to a nuclear weapon as long as I can remember, and I honestly don't think anything has changed. And keep in mind that Israel has not even finished the wars against Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen yet. Though they have at least neutralized Hezbollah and most Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, they are still not in a position to open yet another front. 

It's also unclear how a war would play out. My hope is that it will follow the same pattern that we have seen between Israel and Iran for awhile now. Israel makes a strike, Iran takes some damage and launches a strike to save face and then everything calms down again. Neither side is really powerful enough to destroy each other, even with nuclear weapons, so I think both sides know that they can't do all that much to each other. If strikes happen I expect there to be the same tit-for-tat strikes we have seen for awhile now. 

Of course it could go worse than that. An attack on nuclear weapons research may demand a larger response from Iran than in previous cases. Iran has large unconventional forces and could launch terror attacks globally, even in the United States proper. And it's possible that Iran possesses chemical, biological or radiological weapons (even if they don't have a proper nuke) and that would escalate things greatly. It would be extremely bad for the region, to say the least. 

In either scenario, it's possible America would be dragged into it. I don't know if Trump will back Israel's play or not, but even if we don't we could be dragged into it due to Iran saying they would strike our troops and diplomats in Iraq. My hope is that Israel would act alone and face any consequences alone, but it's also possible that we will not participate in any strikes on Iran but would defend Israel from any retaliation attack, much like we did in the Red Sea against the Houthis. 

My hope now is in the diplomats. I really don't think Trump wants war, though it's clear that Israel does at the very least. But if a deal is made, Israel might back down. The real question is what Iran will do. If they are smart they will take whatever deal Trump has proposed and be thankful for the opportunity. But I don't know if Iran is a rational actor, not that I am sure Israel is either, so who knows what will happen? 

I do know that even if the United States does not participate in any war with Iran, protests and violence from the anti-Israel left is likely. They have been apoplectic since October 7th and a whole new war against Iran will likely enrage them even further. Though I like Israel more than Iran, even I would be flabbergasted and annoyed if they started yet another war for what looks like non-serious reasons. I don't think the anti-Israel camp, who are already deranged, will remain at all sane.