Trump says he is trying to get a deal to end the war between Israel and Iran.

 

President Trump at the 250th birthday celebration for the US Army. Reuters. 

President Trump says that he is trying to get a deal that would end the war between Israel and Iran. Reuters. Trump said that there are meetings happening that could help and that he hopes that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has influence over Iran, will help set up a peace deal. Israel and Iran have hit each other hard in the conflict though it's unclear if Israel will stop before their goal is complete. Trump lamented the fact that he gets very little credit for his efforts as a diplomat and cites the recent end to the conflict between India and Pakistan as evidence that he could get the job done between Israel and Iran. Republicans seem split on the war, with many being critical of aiding Israel and wanting to avoid conflict, while others, like Lindsey Graham, want to join the war. 

My Comment:

Unlike the war between Russia and Israel, I do think that a negotiated settlement is likely to happen. Israel is more powerful than Iran, but they are unlikely to be able to destroy Iran's government. And Iran isn't anywhere near powerful enough to destroy Israel. So if the fighting is to be stopped then a deal must be made eventually. 

I think this is why Trump vetoed Israeli plans to kill Ayatollah Khamenei. Though Khamenei isn't the secular leader of Iran, he is the de facto one and if Israel had killed him then there wouldn't really be anyone to negotiate with. Indeed, the folks they did kill were the hardliners that were resisting any chance a deal as they assumed Israel would attack anyways. They may have been right, but they are dead now and with them gone and Iran under siege their replacements might be more amicable to a deal. 

The real problem is the Israelis. Their hardliners are still in place and they might not want to settle until the Iranian regime collapses. Such a thing is unlikely, I know Iran's government isn't exactly popular among their people, but they are also very good at controlling rioting and proto-revolutions. I don't really believe that Iran was close to getting a nuke so I don't really think it's about that, but I also don't think they can accomplish those goals militarily. But they might double down regardless. 

The real hope is that America isn't drawn into the war. President Trump pretty obviously doesn't want that to happen, if he wanted to be in the war he would be. And he knows that his base would not be happy if we got involved in the war unless something really stupid happened, like a rash of terrorism across the United States at the direction of Iran. 

And it does seem that Iran doesn't want the United States in the war either. Obviously they are already in a tough fight with Israel and they absolutely do not want American air power involved as well. They could have at any time struck US bases in Iraq and Syria. The fact that they haven't is good evidence that they want to keep the United States out of the war, and Trump has told them directly that it would be an extremely bad idea to attack US interests in the Middle East. 

I do think that Trump is capable of cutting a deal. He has absolutely done so in the past and was able to end the India-Pakistan conflict. He is a diplomat at heart and if anyone can end the war it is Trump. The problem is that I don't think either side is desperate enough to end the war just yet and until that happens, the killing will continue...