Ukraine claims Russia launched the largest air attack of the war.

 

File photo of a Russian drone about to strike. AP. 

Ukraine has claimed that Russia launched the largest air attack of the war. AP. 537 aerial weapons including 477 drones and decoys and 60 missiles were used on attacks across Ukraine, including cities like Liev, far away from the front lines. Ukraine claims that most of these weapons were either shot down or "lost" through jamming. Russia has improved their aerial attacks on Ukraine recently, with improved drones and missiles along with more effective tactics. The strikes continue as Russia makes minor but steady gains across the front lines. Ukraine also claimed that one of their F-16 fighter jets was destroyed during the fighting, with the pilot being killed. 

My Comment:

The Iran-Israel conflict and ensuing political roller coaster completely distracted everyone from the Ukraine-Russia conflict. But the war there still rages as Russia continues their grinding offensives all across the front. And, increasingly, massive drone and missile strikes like this. 

I would take the Ukrainian MOD's comments on this with a grain of salt. Their count of how many weapons were used in the attack and, more critically, how many were shot down or otherwise dealt with, is probably off by quite a bit. Ukraine does have air defenses left and jamming does work to destroy drones, but I doubt they were able to down anywhere near the number they did in this report. Indeed, I am guessing that many of the drones and missiles were unopposed as they hit targets far away from both Kiev and the front lines. Not that we should believe Russia or Western intelligence agencies either, but Ukraine absolutely has an incentive to lie about how many of these weapons they shot down. 

The loss of the F-16 is important as well. It's unclear how many F-16's Ukraine even has, they were supposed to get 85, but I don't know how many have been delivered and how many were lost. But the ones that are there are probably the best fighter jets they have left, even though they got the obsolete and worn out models. 

Other sources have an account of how the F-16 was destroyed and it gives me major "Ghost of Kiev" flashbacks. The Ukrainian Government is saying that the pilot had shot down six "targets" but was destroyed as he tried to deal with a seventh. That seems pretty unlikely, though technically the F-16 can carry 9 missiles, but the standard loadout is six. I guess it's possible he fired off all of his missiles and then tried to hit the seventh target with a gun kill, and collided with the drone or missile debris field and crashed, but with only the Ukrainian government to confirm or deny that, I don't think we will ever know. 

Are these air attacks effective? I am not sure. The Russians seem to be focusing on depleting and destroying Ukrainian air defenses. It seems to be working as Russia is able to launch these attacks fairly frequently and it goes well with there strategy of attrition. But I do wonder what exactly they are targeting. You would think that energy generation would be a major target but Russia seems content to not shut down the remainder of Ukraine's power. 

I have said for a long time that Russia will win this war and this seems like a good example as why that is likely. Far from running out of weapons, Russia appears to be building up quickly. A strike like this would not have been possible in the early parts of the war, and not just because Russia foolishly attacked with too small of a force. They have learned from their mistakes and their industrial production is absolutely picking up pace. 

I have probably mentioned this before but back in college I had a history professor who told the class that his World War II class was mostly about industrial production. In short, his argument was that Japan and Germany were doomed as they could not match the industrial output of America. It was a simplified argument, but one that I always thought had merit. This strike shows that he was probably correct. All of NATO cannot match Russia's military production at this point, even if you ignore the contribution of their North Korean allies. As long as that is the case, I can't see how Ukraine can win this war as it very quickly runs out of weapons.