Wisconsin Supreme Court refused to hear Congressional redistricting case, dealing a blow to Democrat ambitions in the state.

 

File photo of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Politico/AP.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court has refused to hear a Congressional redistricting case, dealing a major blow to Democrat ambitions to take several seats in the state. Politico. The Court did not explain their decision. The court had ruled the districts at the state level had to be redrawn and it resulted in Democrat gains. Democrats hoped the court would do the same thing for congressional districts. Only two seats in Wisconsin are considered competitive and the Democrats had hoped to increase that number. Wisconsin's congressional maps were drawn by Governor Tony Evers in 2022 and the United States Supreme Court refused to challenge them. 

My Comment:

This is a fairly shocking development. I live in Wisconsin and both the Republican and the Democrats made the last Supreme Court election taking up this case the main rallying cry. When I heard that the Democrats had one I was pretty despondent because I thought my vote would be further disenfranchised, but I guess that isn't going to happen.

There are several reasons why this could have happened but the most obvious is the fact that Justice Janet Protasiewicz ended up recusing herself from this case. She's a liberal and without her the Wisconsin Supreme Court went from a 4-3 Liberal majority to a 3-3 tie. She had some pretty obvious bias in the case as she said the maps were rigged and unfair. Without her it wasn't really possible for the Democrats to actually get this done.

There could be other considerations as well. The Supreme Court said that the current maps, put into place in 2022, are fair and constitutional. That was a blow to the Republicans at the time but it appears to be a boon now as even the liberal justices on the Wisconsin Court would be reluctant to redo something SCOTUS has already approved of. 

There is also the idea that changing the maps would be dangerous for the 2026 elections, as it would be difficult to change the maps before next year's election. I am not sure I buy that argument, but it has been made. It would be clear that it would be disruptive for sure. 

And it would certainly give folks the impression that the court is indeed biased against Republicans. Everyone in Wisconsin knows this already but to do it in such an obvious way when the Supreme Court ruled on this just a couple years ago would remove any doubt in anyone's mind. 

This does, of course, complicate things for the Democrats plans to regain control of the House in 2026. The two seats that the Democrats were going to target with these redistricting, the 1st and the 3rd makes those seats a lot harder to pick up. And forget anything after that. The Democrats need to pick up three seats to win the house and it got a lot tougher to do so in Wisconsin at least. 

Of course, there may be redistricting efforts in two red states, Ohio and Texas. Ohio has to redistrict this year due a constitutional amendment and that will likely put two seats there into the Republican column. The Texas redistricting is no sure thing but it should have similar results with at least two more seats being in play, potentially as many as five. Wisconsin would have mitigated this but that boat has left the harbor. There may be issues in Louisiana and Alabama as well. 

Democrats are now going to have an uphill battle in getting back the House. Historically the incumbents have a hard time in the Midterms, even when the President is popular. But the Democrats are probably going to have to fight defensively in Ohio for sure and Texas potentially. And they weren't able to rig the Wisconsin maps in their favor, which makes it even harder. They have opportunities in California and New York, but it is going to be an uphill battle. It's very possible that they could, like I said, historically the incumbent's party has difficulty in midterms, but it's a lot less likely now than if the Democrats had gotten there way in Wisconsin.