A damaged civilian building in Sapronovo. ABC News/AFP/Getty.
Ukraine has launched one of the largest drone strikes of the war on Russia. ABC News. Russia claims to have shot down 343 drones, with 91 of them being in the Moscow region while 6 were targeting the Kursk nuclear power plant. Two or three people were killed in the raid and at least 20 were wounded. Russia said that the attacks were meant to undermine peace talks.
However, Ukraine has agreed in principle to a 30 day cease fire. BBC. The cease fire goes beyond Ukraine's proposal to have a cease fire in the air and ocean only. The United States has agreed to also resume aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Russia has not as of this writing responded to the proposal.
My Comment:
I think I understand what Ukraine is doing here. I don't think the drone attacks were for any military objective, they just wanted to put Russia into a position where they wouldn't agree to the cease fire that was just proposed.
Why don't I think that the strikes were for military purpose? Because they weren't directed at the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have been routed. I wrote yesterday about how that battle happened, and now Russian troops have entered the town of Sudzha directly. Though I doubt anything could stop the Russians at this point, using this huge number of drones to attack Russian forces in the area could have affected the battle. More troops could have escaped the cauldron and perhaps Ukraine could have delayed the inevitable capture of the Russian territory they took earlier in the war.
Instead, these strikes were to give a middle finger to Russia. Russia did launch a drone strike on Ukraine but Ukraine is trying to derail this peace mission before it can even begin. Russia is a lot less likely to agree to any cease fire deal after their capital was attacked and civilian areas were damaged.
I don't have high hopes of this cease fire going into effect. Not only did this drone strike sour the Russian's mood, they have little reason to accept it when the battlefield is finally starting to open up. How can they agree to a cease fire when they are very close from kicking Ukraine out of their territory? Maybe after Sudzha falls in the next couple of days, but until that happens I don't see it happening.
This is why I think Ukraine agreed to this deal, they get almost everything they want. They get Trump off of their back, they get their weapons and intel back, they also get to paint Russia as the "bad guy" when they refuse to accept the deal, at least at the moment.
However, I do think it's possible that Russia will agree. Like I said, the Sudzha question could be resolved pretty soon, assuming they don't get bogged down in the town. Once that happens Russia could agree to a cease fire for their own reasons. A break in the fighting could help them in the Donbas front, where Ukraine managed to push back a little. A 30 day break would also allow them to better prepare for a major offensive this spring without the threat of those troop buildups being attacked by Ukraine
I think Russia also wants to please Donald Trump to an extent. Donald Trump is an unpredictable man in many ways, but what is predictable is that he wants to make a deal. If Russia throws Trump a 30 day bone not only do they please Trump, they also give Ukraine another 30 days to screw things up for themselves with him.
The key factors of if it does happen is how angry Russia is about the drone strikes and how much benefit they see from a cease fire. I can't see it happening until Sudzha falls, unless some kind of deal is made where Ukraine pulls back from Russia entirely as a condition of the cease fire.
Either way, it is encouraging that at least some kind of cease fire is being discussed. It's possible that things could indeed work out. I'm fairly cynical, I don't see Russia as agreeing to a cease fire when they are winning unless they get an amazing deal, and I don't think Zelensky is sane enough to give them what they want. But all we can do is hope it works out and the killing can finally stop. I sincerely hope a deal can be made.
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