The PKK group has agreed to a cease fire with Turkey, possibly leading to the end of a 40 year war.

 

Kurds in Iraq wave a flag with PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan on it. NPR/AFP.

The PKK, the Kurdistan Worker's Party, has agreed to a cease fire with Turkey, which could lead to the end of a 40 year war. NPR. The announcement comes two days after imprisoned PKK founder, Abdullah Ocalan called on the PKK to end the war. The war started in the 1980's after the Kurds felt they were being treated badly by Turkey. The PKK had largely fled Turkey and had only committed minor terror attacks recently. The move might be a sign that Turkey's President, Tayipp Erdogan, needs the Kurds to win his next election. The fall of the Assad government in Syria may have played a role, given the new government there plans to integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the military and may allow Turkish forces to fight there to deal with ISIS. 

My Comment:

Time will tell if the peace will hold. The Turks and PKK have a long history of violence against each other and it's hard to end 40 years of war. I don't really trust that Erdogan is really going to treat the Kurds much better than they are treated now. 

It's possible though. Erdogan's approval rating is slipping. I haven't seen super recent polls but I have seen quite a few from last year that had him underwater in approval. He might actually need the Kurds to vote for him if he wants to survive Turkey's next election. Supposedly he is done after the last election, but it's possible he will run again in 2028 and it wouldn't be a bad idea for him to get the Kurds on his side. 

As for the PKK, I think they saw the writing on the wall. They had long used the lawless areas of Syria and Iraq to launch attacks on Turkey but that seems to be over. The new government in Syria is a lot less sympathetic to a group of actual communist rebels. Assad didn't care because Turkey was a rival but with him out of the way, I am guessing the al-Qaeda descended government of Syria isn't going to tolerate PKK in their borders. 

The SDF were always unofficial allies of the Kurds, but they too aren't going to be able to protect the PKK. Though officially they don't like the PKK either, they generally looked the other way when it came to the PKK. With them being integrated into the Syrian army, I don't see that continuing. 

There is reason for optimism though. Abdullah Ocalan has quite a cult of personality built up around him and if he says to lay down arms, I think the PKK will listen to him. There might be some grumbling but I do think that they will listen to him, especially considering the current tactical situation. 

Regardless of the outcome it's another example of the status quo in the Middle East falling apart. Turkey appears to be on an upward trajectory and will fill the void that Iran left when their plans against Israel fell apart. Syria will probably be a Turkish Suzerainty, largely controlled by Turkey. Iran is no longer the dominate power and Israel is probably more threatened by Turkey than Iran now...

I do hope that the cease fire will lead to better treatment for the Kurds. Though I don't respect the ones that joined communists groups like PKK, I do think that Turkey should treat them better. At least now Erdogan does have a reason to try to stop turning them into Turks. Hopefully this peace holds.