Syrians protest against the violence in Damascus. NPR/AFP.
More than 1300 Syrians have been killed in renewed fighting in Syria, with the new government carrying out massacres against the Alawite minority. NPR. The fighting began after an Alawite militia allegedly killed 16 government soldiers. In response the government sent troops and enforced curfews in Latakia and Tartus. Alawites have been attacked since the Assad government fell, as they were a major supporter of the regime and Assad as an Alawite himself. The new government, led by former al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formally known as al-Nusra, has conducted massacres in response, with many civilians dying after being shot at close range. The British based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that 800 civilians, 231 Syrian fighters and 250 Alawite militiamen have been killed.
My Comment:
I am sure I have said somewhere on this blog that I thought having al-Nusra, what HTS used to be, taking over Syria would be the 2nd worst outcome for the country. Obviously having ISIS take over would have been even worse, but remember, HTS is al-Qaeda. They have said they have renounced terrorism and al-Qaeda but I don't believe it for a second.
Indeed, I am surprised that it took this long for the Alawites to be attacked. Though they are kind of Muslims, both Sunni and Shia Muslims consider them heretics. Part of it too is the fact that they supported the old regime. Assad was an Alawite himself and many of the bad things his regime did was in defense of the Alawites, which just multiplies the hatred Alawites get in Syria right now.
I do think it was wise for the Alawites to arm up, but it looks like they don't have anywhere near the resources they need to actually fight back against the Syrian government. Though I am guessing a lot of Syria's more modern equipment and weapons are rusting in the desert, they still have a very powerful Army and state level resources. Alawite militias might be able to stop some of the killing but if the Syrian government goes all in then things will get bad quickly.
I'd also mention that this part of Syria, the coast, was largely unaffected by the war. The Syrian government protected the area very well and there wasn't a population of Sunni Muslims for the terrorists to draw from. It's sad to see that it is falling into chaos now.
Russia also had a major naval base there and that is part of the reason why it was peaceful. The Tartus naval base is a very strategic one and Russia will probably be willing to defend it, and their Alawite allies. They have forces in the area and supposedly they are protecting large numbers of civilians.
Russia's interests in Syria makes me suspicious of this whole situation. Western intel agencies hate the act that Russia has a base in Syria and have a major interest in seeing it destroyed. Part of me thinks, without any real evidence, that the shooting by the Alawites may have had some western involvement. Either way, I am guessing they are happy with the fighting picking up again as it will undermine Russian interests in Syria.
But if there is a hope that the killing will stop, it's Russia as well. I doubt the Syrian government wants to pick a fight with the Russians, who have a very capable military right now and have quite a history in the region. It's possible that the HTS government could reign in their forces so that further attacks against civilians don't happen.
Either way, this is not a good situation for Syria. The country appears to be falling back into chaos, and it's also losing a lot of their sovereignty. It's possible that we will see much of the country carved up, with an independent Alawite coast, a Turkish north, a Israel-American south and HTS dominating everything else (with ISIS hanging out in the desert). Regardless of the long term situtuation, I think the killing and reprisals against Alawites (and other minorities like Christians, Druze and Shia Muslims) will continue...
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