Ukraine's Kursk front in Russia has collapsed to the point of a rout, with Russia now threatening to encircle the remaining forces.

 

An Ukrainian soldier in the occupied town of Sudzha. ABC News/Reuters. 

Ukraine's Kursk invasion in Russia has collapsed to the point of a rout with Russia now threatening to encircle remaining forces. ABC News. Russia had caused several major breakthroughs in Ukranian lines, forcing them to retreat to Sudzha. The last highway out of Sudzha is under fire control of the Russians while Russia has also entered Ukraine to try and further cut off the town. Russia was able to pull of a stunning attack that cut off the northern forces by infiltrating a company of troops through an unused gas pipeline north of Sudzha. The town itself has now been entered by Russian forces. 

My Comment:

The ABC News report had several obvious errors, like claiming that North Korea was involved in the offensive of that the Kursk breakthrough was due to Trump cutting off support. Neither of these things are true as far as I have been able to determine. I still haven't seen any actual evidence of North Korean combat troops being deployed in large numbers and the Kursk operation was doomed for the front. 

They are also downplayed just how insane and effective the pipeline attack was. Supposedly a company-sized formation of Russian troops climbed through the pipeline, which used to carry natural gas to Europe. The trip took 6 days underground and when they popped up behind enemy lines, it caused absolute chaos and caused the rout. 

The funny thing is that Ukraine absolutely should have expected this, it's not the first time Russia has used a pipe to change the outcome of the battle. In 2023 they used a similar pipe, a water pipe this time, to essentially win the battle of Adviika, which had ground on for a long time. The attack then was very successful so I am not sure why Ukraine didn't learn their lesson. I am guessing they didn't think that the Russians would be crazy enough to do the same thing with a 9 mile long gas pipeline, but apparently they are. 

Ukraine really got routed here too. The Russians were able to take basically all their territory back except Sudzha, and some of the land to the south and west of it. Ukraine lost a huge number of vehicles and troops in the retreat. They are saying that the roads leading into and out of Sudzha are "Highways of Death", similar to the infamous Highway 80 in Iraq during the Gulf War. 

Even worse for Ukraine is the fact that Russia has fire control over the exits from Sudzha. They can hit every inch of that territory with artillery and drones, so any withdrawal will be hit with both. When your MSR is under artillery fire you are in serious trouble. 

Of course Russia is making things worse by entering Ukraine and threatening the highway out of Sudzha as well. If they manage to reach the highway, they can essentially cut off the MSR, making any retreat from Sudzha extremely difficult. They are also attacking from the east, which could cut off the eastern side of the highway as well. Regardless of what the Ukrainian generals are saying, Ukraine's forces are in danger of being totally cut off. 

But instead of evacuating Sudzha, Ukraine is doubling down, yet again. They are sending even more troops into Russia and they just appear to be putting their fingers in their ears about their losses and chances in the battle. 

Why? Because the Kursk salient was supposed to be their trump card (no pun intended) in any negotiations with Russia. They wanted to trade it for land that Russia took in the war. Why Russia would agree to that is not clear, but what is clear is that they waited far too long and will lose their bargaining chip very quickly. I would be surprised if the Kursk salient is still there by the end of the week, let alone by the time any negotiations start. 

Of course this was always the likely outcome. Ukraine very foolishly decided to attack during a defensive war against an opponent that had a much larger military. They did so on a narrow front and created a very large salient which was always going to be at risk of being cut off. And by doing so they had allowed Russia to use their conscripts in battle, freeing up more contract soldiers to fight on the Donbas front. It was a massive mistake all around and shows why Russia hasn't tried to take out Zelensky. He's incompetent. 

The real question is if this is the beginning of the end for Ukraine. Russia has been winning the war for a long time, but the lines haven't seen any major breakthroughs until now. Given that Ukraine's best troops and weapons were deployed to Kursk, any many of those troops and weapons have been destroyed or captured, it's possible that this will be a death blow. Given that morale is already terrible and nobody wants to be the last guy to die in a lost cause, we might see some larger breakthroughs on other fronts...