President Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine.

 

Zelensky (right) and Trump (left) during the White House meeting. CNBC/Reuters.

President Donald Trump has ended all military aid to Ukraine after the relationship between Trump and President Zelensky collapsed last Friday. CNBC. Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Zelensky had a contentious White House press conference that devolved into a shouting match after Zelensky did not agree to a mineral deal that was designed to stop the war, demanding hard security guarantees. Trump criticized Zelensky further after he was quoted in the Associated Press as saying peace was "very, very far away". Despite the criticism and the end of military aid, Trump said that the mineral deal isn't dead yet. 

My Comment:

I am not surprised that this has happened, Zelensky handled things about as badly as he possibly could have during that meeting. Not only did he not sign the deal he agreed to, he loudly criticized Trump and Vance in the process. He dressed disrespectfully too, but it was his words that doomed him. And his comments about peace being far away? Absolutely didn't help. 

Despite the poor way that Zelensky handled things, it does show how much of a difference there is between what Zelensky wants and what Trump wants. Zelensky wants the war to continue, probably so he can draw NATO into the war as that's the only realistic chance of victory for him. 

I have also mentioned that Zelensky is stuck between four different groups, the USA, Europe, the Banderites in his own government, and, of course, Russia. I am guessing out of all of these groups, only Europe and the Banderites are still happy with Zelensky, and I am not sure about the Banderites. But I do think that if he had fully committed to peace, either group would have taken him out. Though it's possible (though unlikely) that the United States could take him out now too. It's funny but the only people that aren't planning on taking out Zelensky is Russia, for much the same reason why there wasn't a huge effort to take out Hitler by the allies, he might be replaced by someone competent. 

But with Trump, it's clear that he is sick of the war, sick of being ripped off and sick of Zelensky personally. I think there is an argument that Zelensky should have done more to help America avoid Joe Biden and if he had simply released evidence of Joe Biden's corruption then the war would have never happened. Zelensky's rather idiotic behavior lately has soured the relationship even further. 

The two men want very different things. Zelensky wants the war to continue at almost any cost, even nuclear war, because it's probably the only way he survives. Trump wants to avoid a nuclear war at almost any cost and does appear to be personally affected by all the death and destruction. Is there a way to end the stalemate?

Ending the weapons shipments might help. Though Europe has committed to supplying Ukraine with further weapons, their cupboards are almost completely empty. Without US equipment I don't see how Ukraine is able to continue fighting, especially since they were low on ammo, troops and morale even before this tiff happened.  

Keep in mind that the pressure could be increased on Ukraine even further. As far as I know Elon Musk is still allowing Ukraine to use Starlink. Trump could order that to end in a second and if he did Ukraine would be in even further trouble. 

Also keep in mind that Russia appears to be getting ready for a major offensive this string. They are still in the "mud season" in Ukraine and as soon as that ends I am guessing there will be major attacks. I don't expect to see the big "arrow" attacks we saw during the start of the war, rather, attacks across the entire breadth of the front line, similar to what Russia has been doing all winter, just on a larger scale. 

How does this play out in the end? Well, I don't know if Zelensky is playing with a full deck anymore. The smart thing to do would be to come back to Washington, in a suit and hat in hand, and beg Trump for forgiveness. He should also sign the mineral deal as it would be as close to a security guarantee that he is every likely to get. Will he do that? I have no idea. 

But if he doesn't? I don't see him or Ukraine lasting much longer without US support. Zelensky could be taken out by the various factions that hate him and Russia will likely take advantage of the lack of weapons, troops and morale to launch a major attack that could even break everything wide open. Keep in mind there are only a few "fortress" cities left in eastern Ukraine and after that it's mostly open fields and a lack of defenses. Things could accelerate very quickly and Zelensky is probably throwing away his best chance at an actual peace.