Damaged energy infrastructure in Ukraine. The Guardian/EPA.
Russia has agreed to a 30 day cease fire in terms of energy infrastructure in the Russia-Ukraine war after a high stakes call with US President Donald Trump. The Guardian. The deal was not as extensive as the full cease fire that was the objective, but it is still a sign that the Ukraine war has some hope of ending. Attacks on energy infrastructure has been a major part of the war, with Russia attempting to "deenergize" much of Ukraine while Ukraine has launched many drone attacks against the Russian oil industry. If Ukraine agrees to the partial cease-fire it would be the first since the war started. The White House said that new negotiations would begin for a maritime cease fire, a full cease fire, and an end to the war.
My Comment:
Slowly but surely things seem to be ramping up in the peace movement in the Ukraine war. This is a very small step but if it comes to pass the war might actually end some day. A partial cease-fire is a partial win and it's certainly better than the alternative.
It's also a win-win for both Russia and Ukraine. Both sides have done damage to each other with their energy attacks. Ukraine's only power generation now comes from their remaining nuclear power plants and whatever they can get from foreign countries, the rest of their infrastructure has been destroyed. And Russia will be happy that they will no longer have to face attacks on their very important oil industry.
It's why I think there is a chance that Zelensky will go for this too. They never really gained all that much from attacking Russia's energy infrastructure, it was always out of spite, so giving up drone strikes on their oil industry is very easy. It would also protect the few power generators they still have, which would help them keep the power on. It's an easy win for both sides.
It's possible that Zelensky won't go for it. I get the feeling that both Putin and Zelensky want to continue the war, but neither side wants to anger President Trump. The question is if Zelensky is willing to risk the wrath of Trump to hold off the Banderites in his government that want zero cease fires, even one as common sense as this one.
If a cease fire happens, it would just be the first step. The steps after that are a bit harder. The 2nd step, a maritime cease-fire, seems like it would be fairly easy, but after that things get a lot more difficult. A full cease-fire, like the original demand, is going to be a tough sell to the Russians.
What Russia is looking to avoid is Ukraine using the cease-fire to rearm. Ukraine is absolutely on the backfoot right now. Not only did they lose the battle of Kursk, with much of their best soldiers and equipment being destroyed, they are also losing ground on the other fronts. Russia has the military momentum right now and it will be very hard to convince them to give it up.
That's why Russia is demanding a pause on military aid so that Ukraine cannot rearm during a cease-fire. The problem with that is that I am sure Trump would be able to cut a deal, but what he can't do is convince Europe to do so as well. Europe seems suicidally set on fighting the Ukraine war to the last man, even if it means destroying themselves in the process. Europe is going to be a huge problem to any peace deal and my advice to Trump would be to try and find a separate peace from the madmen in Europe.
Zelensky is the other major problem. I have said for awhile now he's got four mutually exclusive groups that are pressuring him, Russia, The United States, Europe and the Banderites in his own government. He can't possibly please all four groups, so it will depend on who he is more afraid of, and right now I think it's the Banderites. He knows that if he even considers Putin's demands, (to review, Russia want's demilitarization, denazification, recognition of captured territory, including Crimea and a guarantee there will be no joining NATO), that they could very easily assassinate him. Though he would be wise to not anger any of the other factions as they could absolutely do the same thing.
Still, though peace is a long way off, and we could still see the same collapse we just saw in Gaza, it's still a big step that Russia is willing to agree with anything. It's very possible that the problems can somehow be resolved and the killing will finally stop. I absolutely won't be holding my breath, but it is nice to have hope.
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