Why is Donald Trump holding a rally in California?

 

Donald Trump at this weekend rally in Butler Pennsylvania. Patch/AP.

Donald Trump is holding a rally in Coachella California this weekend. Patch. Though California is not generally considered a swing state, Trump has visited the state recently, though that was for fundraisers this summer. Trump is expected to paint a dark picture of the state given the connections Kamala Harris has to the state. Harris was a senator for the state before being picked as Joe Biden's VP candidate. It is unclear what politicians will show up to the rally, though the local mayor will not attend as he is not a fan of Trump. 

My Comment:

Coachella is an odd place to hold a Trump rally. California is obviously not a swing state as it has pretty reliably gone for Democrats for my entire lifetime. Though it's possible that Trump could indeed flip a traditional blue state, like Minnesota or New Jersey, it seem pretty much impossible for Trump to take California. 

So why on earth is he spending time here instead of in critical Midwest swing states? Well it seems pretty obvious that this is a play for the House. Though California is a blue state, thanks to the big cities, there are wide swaths of it that are fairly conservative. A major rally in this part of the state is a good way to get out the vote for these house districts that Trump will need if he wants to keep ahold of the House. There is a contested Senate election but "Shifty" Adam Schiff has a very comfortable lead, and the GOP candidate, Steve Garvey, is no fan of Trump, so I doubt that's a concern. Trump has done something similar with the race in Montana, a safe red state with a Democratic Senator up for re-election, but that's not what is going on here. This is about the house

Still, in what is supposedly a close election, shoring up the House in California seems like a dumb move on the surface. After all, why do this when you could be shoring up the critical swing states in the Midwest, like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania? Trump has hit those states pretty hard so perhaps he is at the point of diminishing returns? Nevada is in play and Coachella is at least in driving distance from Nevada, but I doubt that many people will make the drive

But the other possibility is that this is a statement of confidence. There are pretty strong hints that the election isn't actually that  close and Trump going to California is a very good sign. You don't shore up your support for the House if you are losing, at least that is the theory. It's similar to the events Trump did earlier in the race in New York and New Jersey, neither state is likely to flip (though it's at least a possibility in New Jersey) but if Trump was behind he would have never did it. 

After all, what are we seeing from Kamala Harris and Tim Walz? Are they doing rallies in traditional red states? Absolutely not. Indeed, Harris, who has been famous for the entire race for not doing interviews, is doing an absolute ton of them in friendly environments. It's clear that she is changing her strategy on the fly. She thought she could just hide from the media for the entire race like Joe Biden did in 2020 but it certainly doesn't look like she can afford to do that now. And what other reason would she have for doing so? 

Keep in mind the news for Kamala Harris has not been good. She's come under withering fire for her response for Hurricane Helene and I doubt she will handle Hurricane Milton any better. Her running mate, Tim Walz, got defeated at the debate in pretty spectacular fashion. And there are even rumors that Joe Biden is actively working against her at this point out of revenge for being pushed off the ticket. Why else would Biden schedule his first press conference basically ever during a major Harris speech? And who can forget this image? 

The Trump campaign seems confident in victory while the Harris campaign seems to be in trouble. I can't imagine that Trump would ever visit California for a rally if he thought that he was going to lose, outside of fundraising. It's also why I think Ron DeSantis didn't take a phone call from Harris and why world leaders and tech moguls like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk are cozying up to Trump. It's not conclusive to be sure but it does seem like Trump is more likely to win in November than Harris and a lot of people apparently can see it.