Pentagon threatens Russia with long range missile strikes if North Korea deploys troops to Ukraine...

 

Ukrainian soldiers firing artillery. Reuters.

The Pentagon has threatened to remove all restrictions for Ukraine in terms of weapons and allow long range missile strikes if North Korea deploys troops to the war in Ukraine. Reuters. The Pentagon claims that there are 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia for training. The Pentagon also claims that those troops could be deployed to fight in Ukraine directly or fight in the Kursk incursion. North Korea and Russia have not confirmed that there are North Korean troops in Russia. Russia initially called the claim was "fake news" but now says it is not anyone's concern but Russia. Russia has said that allowing Ukraine to use long range weapons would be an act of war by NATO and the United States as Ukraine does not have the capability to operate those weapons.

My Comment:

I wrote about the possibility of North Korean troops being deployed to the Ukraine fight earlier this month. In that post I was pretty skeptical of reports that North Koreans were involved in the fighting. I hadn't seen any evidence that North Koreans were there but I did think it was possible that they were helping out and observing how their KN-23 missiles were doing in combat. 

Now they are reporting that there are 10,000 troops there? I don't think I believe it. If North Korean troops are in Russia, they certainly aren't deployed in combat as we would have seen killed or captured North Korean soldiers by now. 

But I guess it is possible that North Korean troops are in Russia. Like I said, I figure that the KN-23's that Russia received may have required North Korean engineers to use. But combat troops? They could just be training in Russia. Russia and North Korea signed a security pact and they may be wishing to train up North Korean troops just as part of their alliance. 

By the terms of their agreement North Korea might have to fight in the Kursk Oblast. The area that Ukraine took would activate the mutual defense portion of their agreement and North Korea may be willing to deploy troops there to assist in the fight. Is that even necessary though? Everything I have heard recently shows that Russia is taking back the territory regardless. Indeed, they are making moves across the front, with a few more towns and cities falling to Russia this weekend. 

I also don't know why Russia would really want these troops in the first place, outside of symbolic reasons. Even if the 10,000 troops rumor was true, that's a drop in the bucket and wouldn't dynamically change the outcome of the war, especially considering the troops would not be likely to be good quality. 

North Korea probably does want to deploy these troops. Why? They haven't been in combat for a very long time and would gain quite a bit if they had a core of troops that had seen combat. The battlefields of Ukraine and Russia would probably be a good proxy for the kind of conditions they would see in any war against South Korea and/or the United States.

Of course, all of this is burying the lead. The real problem here is that the United States is threatening World War III over this supposed deployment. Russia has already said that allowing Ukraine to use long range weapons in the war would be a de facto declaration of war. And they would be right, Ukraine can't actually use the long range weapons they have without support of the countries that developed those weapons. They would have to be operated by troops from those countries, either in uniform or as mercenaries. 

Doing that would be a much bigger escalation than having North Korean troops fighting in Russia. Indeed, there is a very good  chance of it starting World War III. A North Korean deployment would not do that but attacking Russian soil with US or NATO weapons operated by NATO crews? That's war and I don't know how that ends in a good way. This is an insane escalation. 

Of course I think there is a good chance none of this happens. Like I said, I haven't seen any evidence that North Korean troops are even in Russia, let alone fighting in Ukraine. And Russia hardly needs the help at this point, Ukraine is falling apart with troops fleeing from the front lines. There is a very good chance that Ukraine will lose the war before the United States has a new President and even if that doesn't happen, I don't see them surviving through 2025. 

The fear is that NATO will do something stupid to prolong the war. They know the situation on the battlefield is so  bad the only way they could succeed is if they had NATO troops backing them in the fighting. They also know which way the election is heading and want to counter any attempt by Trump to end the war. Could that mean starting a wider war with Russia over phantom North Korean troops? It's sad to say that it's very possible.