Russia has taken back a large part of the Kursk incursion, pushing Ukraine out of Russian territory.

 

A M-28m "Havoc" helicopter near Kursk. The Telegraph/Russian Military photo.

Russia has taken back a large part of the Kursk incursion, pushing Ukraine out of Russian territory. The Telegraph. Russian sources say that half of the territory taken by Ukraine during their incursion has been retaken with Ukrainian troops retreating. The exact amount of territory retaken is disputed but even the pro-Ukraine Institute of the Study of War says at least 46% of the territory has been retaken, with other sources saying it was a 1/4 or 1/3rd. Ukraine is hampered by several factors in the incursion. Russia is more prepared for Ukraine's "rasputitsa", mud season, as they use more wheeled vehicles than tracked. Ukraine also has little option to defend the area as it is mostly open fields and there are little in the way of natural or constructed defenses. The full amount of territory that Ukraine had occupied is also disputed but 450 square miles is a common number. The attack boosted morale for Ukraine but has not had the effects that Ukraine desired as Russia has largely been able to keep up their offensives in other parts of Ukraine while defending and retaking the incursion. 

My Comment:

It's surprising to see such a Russia positive report in a British news outlet. Much of the reporting I have seen from British news sources are insanely pro-Ukraine and take the out and out propaganda from the UK's Ministry of Defense. Does this mean the media is finally cracking and are having to tell the truth? Perhaps. 

Ukraine was never going to be able to hold onto the Kursk incursion. Like the article said, there are little in the way of natural defenses in the area. There aren't any big cities and it's mostly just open fields. And Ukraine hardly had time to construct any trenches or bunkers. That means troops have little more than tree lines to take cover in, which is obviously a bad situation. 

Of course, Russia has the advantage of troops and technology. Ukraine didn't have that much left in terms of armor and troops and they lost a lot of them. And Russia was able to use their conscripts to fight these Ukrainians in the incursion, which is not something they were able to do legally in Ukraine. 

The worst part for Ukraine is the fact that they weren't able to actually accomplish much. Russia did not have to shift their forces around at all to deal with the incursion and they have remained on a steady offensive. Indeed, they seem to be advancing on all fronts, so this did not work as a distraction. And the supposed objective, the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, remains in Russian hands and was not destroyed. 

I really think that the Kursk offensive by Ukraine is going to go down as one of the biggest blunders in the war. It's the Ukrainian equivalent to the Battle of the Bulge in World War II, a last desperate offensive that had no real chance of victory. Or even perhaps the World War II battle of Kursk, which was widely thought of as the beginning of the end of Nazi Germany. The troops, vehicles and weapons that were, and are being, wasted for little purpose. 

I also think that the mud season is not really going to slow things down too much for Russia. I do think that it will probably stall out a major breakthrough until the ground freezes, but Russia hasn't really been using the kind of tactics that would be slowed down by the mud. Russia has been using small units of infantry to probe the lines and also using lightning motorcycle attacks. Neither of those things are really affected by mud too much. 

This winter is  going to be very bad for Ukraine. They are continuing to lose villages and cities and they are getting close to the last lines of constructed defenses. And if that isn't bad enough, Ukraine is likely to lose power over the winter, Russia will probably not hold back from striking Ukraine's nuclear power plants. Even if the winter is mild like last year's, things will not go well for Ukraine without power...