Democrats are getting nervous about the election...

 

Kamala Harris official portrait. 

The Democrats are getting nervous about the state of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The Hill. Democrats have real concerns about her candidate, from her performance with men, poll numbers and the messaging that has been coming from Harris. The 2024 election is in many ways unique, with the Trump assassination attempts, the removal of Joe Biden as a candidate, to the racial and gender background of Kamala Harris being unprecedented and Trump running for a 2nd non-consecutive term. Democrats say they have some advantages as national polling has been better for Harris than in the swing states and Harris luckily avoided a major crisis as America's longshoremen called off a strike at the last minute. Harris has also tried to refocus her campaign moving from doing almost no media appearances to an absolute blitz that was focused on drawing in Hispanic and Black voters. However, Democrats have been critical of her media appearances with strategists saying it is too late to be fine tuning her messages. 

My Comment:

I think Democrats are right to be nervous. There are a lot of signs that show that Trump is actually doing very well. Indeed, the betting markets and some of the polling averages show him leading in almost all the swing states, with only Nevada seeming to be in the Harris column. There are also some polling showing surprisingly close races in Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota.  And that is the public polling, from what I understand the internal polling for both the Democrats and Republicans, which tends to be much more accurate, are a lot worse for Harris. 

The news for Harris has been almost universally bad. The fact that the article cited the national polling, which isn't super relevant with the electoral college, is not a good sign. The end of the longshoreman strike was indeed good news for Harris and bad news for Trump, but that's about the only thing that has broke her way. Hilariously they have been trying to tout "good" economic news when everyone is still suffering from the absolutely devastating impact of inflation. 

Indeed, the past few weeks have been terrible for Harris. Hurricane Helene, and now Milton, are causing withering criticism for Harris and the Biden administration. Some of that criticism is silly, like the weather control nonsense that keeps popping up for some reason, but FEMA's response has been terrible and both Harris and Biden acted like they didn't care at all. It is not hard to show up in a less affected area and hand out water bottles, but Harris was busy fundraising in California. Indeed, she still hasn't really convinced me that she cares about the folks affected by these hurricanes and it's telling that the media is focusing on "fake news" instead of touting the government response. 

Speaking of Joe Biden, it sure seems like he is trying to undermine Kamala Harris out of revenge for being replaced. Biden scheduled two press conferences, which he essentially never does, during appearances that Kamala Harris was doing, once during a speech and once during a media appearance on The View. He's also made statements tying Harris to every unpopular thing he has done and it's even rumored that her team and his came to actual blows, though who knows if that is true? 

And these media appearances? They appear to be out of desperation. Harris had hoped to replicate the Biden strategy of not appearing in the media and just relying on people not liking Trump that much, but that obviously wasn't working. But the media appearances have backfired. Harris is not a good speaker and even with friendly interviewers she still had several major gaffes, mostly dealing with her actual plans and how she's different than Joe Biden. Those were layup questions and she still botched it and I think it is hurting her. 

Of course it's not all on Kamala Harris, the Trump campaign has stepped up their game as well. Trump has been more disciplined and more on message since the 2nd Debate and has toned down the kind of rhetoric that the normies dislike. His response to Hurricane Helene was a lot better too, he showed up and acted presidential, which is more than can be said for Harris or Biden. And JD Vance showed that he's a worthy VP and possible President in his own right during an excellent debate and may have ended Tim Walz's political career. 

Still much of this is just opinion on my part, but I would say that I think the writing is on the wall. Trump is certainly acting like he's in the lead. Not only is he barn burning in the swing state, he's also making appearances in blue states as well. I went in depth with his visit to California this weekend, but that's not all. He's also visiting Aurora Colorado to bring more attention to immigration problems and is going to Madison Square Garden, presumably just because he can. That, combined with a slate of swing state polls showing Trump ahead in most of them (though frustratingly not in the same polls, what was up with Quinnipiac showing Trump ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin but not Pennsylvania?), and the general unlikability of Kamala Harris makes me think that Trump has this in the bag. 

Something could still happen, but it would really have to be the black swans of all black swans, like a successful assassination attempt against Trump, as horrible as it is to mention it. The only other ways I can see Harris possibly winning is either a massive polling error in her favor, which would be unprecedented considering the fact that national polling errors tend to go the other, or an absolutely massive amount of voter fraud. Both things are possible, and not mutually exclusive, but I would seriously doubt it.