As you are almost certainly aware, the election is a week away from today. This post will function as my "state of the race", basically how I think the election will play out. I will go through the scenarios that I find most likely.
But I also want to use this space to put out my 2024 endorsement, which should not come as a surprise to anyone who follows this blog. I am, of course, endorsing Donald Trump for the presidency. Donald Trump was a good president in 2016-2020 and his policies are just getting better. And Kamala Harris is a uniquely bad candidate, it's amazing that in three subsequent elections the Democrats have found someone even worse than they had in the last election cycle. I would absolutely vote for Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton over Kamala Harris, and it's not even close.
What polcies of Trump do I like? He's good on the economy, which the Biden-Harris camp have damaged massively. He's not going to start any new wars and he's going to at least try to end the two wars started under Biden, Ukraine and Israel. And he's going to at least attempt to solve the massive immigration problem that got dramatically worse under Biden-Harris. Remember, in 2020, border crossings were a solved issue and the only real problem left were visa overstays and folks that made it over the border before Trump.
But enough about who I want to win, who do I think is going to win? Again, I think it's Donald Trump. Trump has never been this high in the polls and the early voting shows that Republicans are turning out in record numbers. It's to the point where the so-called "sunbelt" swing states, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina aren't really in danger of going blue this year. Indeed, I have seen on social media reports that Harris was pulling out of North Carolina to do ad buys in Virginia, which is a very bad sign.
This second map is the absolute best case scenario for Harris and the only way she actually wins. I don't think this is a very likely scenario, probably 10 to 15% at best. Trump has the sunbelt swing states locked up, I can't see how he would lose any of those states at this point. But Harris could win if she somehow keeps all three Midwest states. That seems unlikely that at least one of them wouldn't flip, but there's a small possibility that the early voter data and polling is somehow biased in Trump's favor in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The larger possibility is that voter fraud somehow changes the race in these states beyond the margin that it can be made up by Republicans. If this is the scenario and Harris "wins" there will be major questions about the election, given the slight lead Trump has in these states and the major problem she has in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
However, Harris could run the table in the Midwest and still lose. All it would take is for Trump to win one of the grey-shaded states in the above map. Of these, New Jersey, Minnesota and New Mexico are unlikely to flip, but Trump is leading in a few polls in New Hampshire and that alone would be enough for Trump to win. And Virginia is where Harris is trying to dumb campaign funds at the last minute, which isn't a good sign for her there either. With that being said, I don't see either state deciding the election and this scenario probably has about a 5% chance of happening.
This map is the one I think is the most likely at around 50%. Trump takes one or more of the Midwest states and most likely is all three. Trump does have a lead in all three states in polling and the early voting looks good in Pennsylvania, which is the most likely state to flip, despite the various voting shenanigans we have heard about today, like people being turned away from the polls. Michigan looks good too given Harris is unpopular among Muslims and the general belief that though Trump is pro-Israel, he will at least try to end the war in Gaza while Harris will do nothing.
The above map is the one my gut says happens. Though I only think it has a 20 to 25% chance of happening I feel like this map is the most likely. I think there is still polling bias against Donald Trump and that he is close enough to flip New Hampshire and Virginia. Like I said, Trump actually leads in the polls in New Hampshire while Virginia has done a lot to clean up their elections thanks to Governor Youngkin. And if Virginia wasn't in play, I don't see Trump visiting the state and Harris investing money there.
This is the "absurd" case scenario where Trump somehow manages to flip every single state that it's even theoretically possible for him to win. Some of those are more likely than other, after New Hampshire and Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico, Maine and New Jersey are the most likely to flip. But for anything for New Hampshire and Virginia to flip, I think the polling error would have to be in the 4 to 6 point range, and though I think there's a small chance (5% or so) that Trump could capture one or more of these states as well.
As for the popular vote, I think there's a better than 50% shot that Trump actually captures it. The early voting in blue states appears to be more red than it usually is and Republicans are extremely motivated. Democrats seem demoralized and split in a way I haven't seen in my lifetime. Trump could certainly lose the popular vote, after all, California has so many votes and is pretty shameless with voter fraud, but I think it's very possible that he will in fact win the popular vote.
With all that being said, I do worry that election fraud could be a major issue. There are reports out there that there was a major fake voter registration plot that was broken up in Pennsylvania and a few other swing states. And the absolutely critical Midwest states have done the least to try and clean up voter roles and ensure a fair election, compared to the sunbelt swing states. Is this a rational worry? I don't think so, I do feel like we are at the point where election fraud would have to be absurdly obvious, to the point where even the media would have to admit it, for Harris to win with it. Like I said, Harris does have a small chance to win legitimately, I don't think it is at all likely.
Finally, I have to say that I am watching both campaigns and their followers and it's pretty clear which side is confident and which side thinks they are going to lose. Trump and his campaign appear to be very smug and are trying to expand the map with apperences in New York, Virginia and New Mexico. Harris and her team don't seem confident at all, with Harris herself being caught on an live mic saying that they "need to make inroads with men" which is not what you want to hear at this point if you are a Democrat.
Kamala and Gretchen Whitmer are caught on a hot mic at their very cringe drinking beer at bar scene:
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) October 27, 2024
"We need to move ground among men."
Then realizes they are probably getting recorded...
"Oh we have microphones in here just listening to everything ... Sh**." pic.twitter.com/UeSOAdF30a
To me, this feels a lot different than 2016 and 2020. I was pretty confident that Trump was going to win in both cases, but this time it seems like a lot more people agree with me on all sides of the political spectrum. Even some of the Trump haters in my life seem resigned to the idea of him winning a 2nd term. That didn't happen in 2020. It just feels different this year, doesn't it? I think Trump will win and when Tuesday next week comes I will be doing my part to make that happen.
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